[{"id":"baeyer-synthetic-indigo-sales","outcomeId":"synthetic-indigo-dye","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world sales of synthetic indigo dye, 1897-2025 (a proxy for economic value)","scope":"direct","low":7000000000,"high":14000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1897,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.15,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No published total; sales proxy. Tonnage: ~5,000 t for jeans (1980), ~14,000 t (1988), ~24,000 t (2001) per Kröppl; 50,000 t by 2011 and ~80,000 t/yr by 2023 per Wikipedia; ~50,000 t/yr per Bidart et al. Linear interpolation. Low: 1980-2025 only, flat 50,000 t after 2011 = 1.42M t. High: rise to 80,000 t by 2023 (1.68M t for 1980-2025) plus 1.16M t for 1897-1979 (assumed ramp to 15,000 t by 1907, then flat; likely high mid-century, when newer dyes displaced indigo) = 2.84M t. Price $5/kg (Bidart et al. 2024), held constant, so early decades are undervalued. Low 1.42M t x $5,000/t = $7.1B, rounded to $7B; high 2.84M t x $5,000/t = $14.2B, rounded to $14B. Share 0.15: Baeyer found the structure and first syntheses, but his routes were impractical; Heumann's and Pfleger's routes and BASF/Hoechst engineering made the product.","laureate":"adolf-von-baeyer","laureateName":"Adolf von Baeyer"},{"id":"moissan-fluorine-nuclear-power-lives-saved","outcomeId":"nuclear-energy","domain":"energy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Air-pollution deaths prevented by nuclear power replacing fossil fuels","scope":"ripple","low":1840000,"high":3060000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1971,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.002,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome range as the Bohr profile. Kharecha and Hansen's NASA brief estimates that nuclear power averted more than 1.8 million net deaths from 1971 to 2009 (1.84 million in the paper; low) and about 76,000 a year in 2000-2009; extending that rate over 2010-2025 adds 16 x 76,000 = 1.22 million, so high = 3.06 million. Share 0.002: most of the roughly 500 power reactors operating or being built need enriched uranium, enrichment needs uranium hexafluoride, and UF6 is made by reacting UF4 with fluorine gas, which industry still makes by Moissan's electrolysis. But fission physics, reactor engineering and enrichment technology carry nearly all the credit, natural-uranium reactors such as Candu need no enrichment, and someone else would likely have isolated fluorine within years. Result: about 3,700-6,100 lives credited.","laureate":"henri-moissan","laureateName":"Henri Moissan"},{"id":"moissan-fluorine-atomic-bombings-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"ripple","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.0003,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 (the same range as the Bohr, Bloch and Rotblat profiles; later cancer deaths excluded). Share 0.0003: the Manhattan Project used vast amounts of fluorine gas to make uranium hexafluoride; its K-25 diffusion plant enriched UF6 and sent the product to the Y-12 calutrons, whose uranium-235 went into the Hiroshima bomb. The Nagasaki plutonium bomb did not depend on his fluorine gas, so we credit 0.05% of Hiroshima's deaths only (Hiroshima is about 60-67% of the total, giving 0.0003 of the whole). Moissan died in 1907, decades before fission was found; the bomb builders and the decision to use the bombs carry nearly all responsibility. Result: about 45-75 deaths credited.","laureate":"henri-moissan","laureateName":"Henri Moissan"},{"id":"moissan-sf6-greenhouse-warming","outcomeId":"sulfur-hexafluoride-emissions","domain":"environment","polarity":"harm","metric":"emissions_avoided_tco2e","label":"Greenhouse warming from sulfur hexafluoride released into the atmosphere, in CO2-equivalent tonnes","scope":"ripple","low":7000000000,"high":7800000000,"unit":"tco2e","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Harm, not emissions avoided. NOAA's 2025 global mean SF6 is 12.24 parts per trillion, and NOAA says losses are negligible, so the air holds roughly all SF6 ever emitted. Air: 5.1e18 kg / 28.97 g per mol = 1.76e20 mol (NASA). SF6: 12.24e-12 x 1.76e20 = 2.15e9 mol x 146 g = about 315,000 tonnes. At EPA's 100-year factor of 23,500: about 7.4 billion tCO2e. Range 7.0-7.8 billion (plus or minus 5% for rounding and calibration). Share 0.01: he and Paul Lebeau first made SF6 in 1901, and it is still made from sulfur and his fluorine gas, but others chose it for grid switchgear from the 1950s and allowed the leaks, its climate effect was unknown to him, and others would likely soon have made it. Result: about 70-78 million tCO2e.","laureate":"henri-moissan","laureateName":"Henri Moissan"},{"id":"michelson-oct-people-scanned","outcomeId":"optical-coherence-tomography","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People examined with optical coherence tomography (OCT) eye scans worldwide since 1996","scope":"ripple","low":70000000,"high":200000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1996,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Fujimoto & Swanson (IOVS 2016): first commercial OCT 1996; ~20M ophthalmic OCT procedures by 2006; ~30M a year worldwide by 2016. Model: 2007-15 averaging 12-22M/yr x 9 = 108-198M; 2016-25 held at 30M/yr (low) or averaging 40M/yr with growth (high) x 10 = 300-400M. Total ~430-620M procedures. Glaucoma and macular patients are scanned repeatedly, so assume (unsourced) 3-6 scans per person: 430M/6 = ~70M to 620M/3 = ~200M people. Early OCT used a low-coherence light source and an interferometer with a scanning reference arm, and the first MIT set-ups were modified Michelson interferometers. But OCT also rests on earlier interferometry by others, femtosecond optics, fibre-optic telecom parts, the 1991 invention by Huang, Fujimoto, Swanson and colleagues, and clinical work, so Michelson's share is a token 0.01.","laureate":"albert-a-michelson","laureateName":"Albert A. Michelson"},{"id":"salvarsan-patients-treated","outcomeId":"syphilis-chemotherapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People treated for syphilis with Salvarsan and related arsenic drugs, 1910 to the penicillin era","scope":"direct","low":5000000,"high":20000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1910,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.4,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No published total exists; this is a rough model. By 1923 the US alone made about 2 million arsenical doses a year (C&EN) and had about 500,000 new infections a year in the 1930s (Englund). A full course needed about 20 arsenic injections (Bosch and Rosich), but perhaps a quarter of patients finished (Willcox, via AI Impacts), so we assume 6-15 doses per patient: 130,000-330,000 US patients a year. For 1911-1945, allowing slow uptake in the 1910s, we use 100,000-250,000 a year: 3.5-8.75 million. Arsenicals were standard across Europe and beyond (Williams), so we add 0.5-1.5 times the US total for the rest of the world: 5.25M (rounded to 5M) and 21.9M (rounded down to 20M). Share 0.4: Ehrlich conceived and led the search; Hata, Bertheim, Hoechst and later arsenical makers share the rest.","laureate":"paul-ehrlich","laureateName":"Paul Ehrlich"},{"id":"ehrlich-diphtheria-antitoxin-lives-saved","outcomeId":"diphtheria-antitoxin-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Diphtheria deaths, mostly of children, averted by antitoxin serum in Germany and the US","scope":"direct","low":190000,"high":720000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1895,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.08,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No published total; a floor for two places. Germany: over 50,000 children died of diphtheria a year before serum (NobelPrize.org, s22), held flat. US: 100,000-200,000 cases a year in the 1920s (CDC, s21). Effect: in Fibiger's 1898 trial 8 of 239 serum-treated vs 30 of 245 controls died (3.3% vs 12.2%: 73% fewer, 8.9 points; s20). Germany 1895-1914: 50,000 x 30-73% fewer deaths x 50-80% treated x 20 yrs = 150,000-584,000. US 1920-29: 1.0-2.0M cases x 50-80% treated x 8.9 points = 44,500-142,000. Total 194,500-726,000, rounded down. The 30% low is under Fibiger's 95% lower bound (42%) as Danish 1894-95 trials found no benefit (s23); treated shares only cut the totals. Other places and years excluded. Share 0.08: Behring and Kitasato found antitoxin, Roux proved it in children; Ehrlich's concentration and standard unit made doses reliable (s22, s9).","laureate":"paul-ehrlich","laureateName":"Paul Ehrlich"},{"id":"ehrlich-acid-fast-stain-tb-lives","outcomeId":"streptomycin-tb-treatment","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"TB deaths averted by treatment, credited via the acid-fast stain used to find patients","scope":"ripple","low":75000000,"high":124000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1946,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.003,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Waksman profile: WHO says TB efforts saved 83M lives in 2000-2024 (s26, s27) against a 43% untreated case-fatality rate (s28). Low: 83M minus ~8M for HIV drugs = 75M. High adds 2025 (3.3M), the 1990s (7.8M, Dolin s29) and 1947-1989 (~30M) = ~124M. Link: treatment needs a diagnosis, and acid-fast smear microscopy 'remains the cornerstone' of TB diagnosis in low- and middle-income countries, where over 90% of cases occur (Vilcheze and Kremer, s24). In 1882 Ehrlich replaced Koch's methylene blue with fuchsin or methyl violet in aniline water; Ziehl (Aug 1882) and Neelsen (1883) refined it into the stain still used. Share 0.003: diagnosis gets ~0.1 of the credit (drugs, programmes, X-ray and culture the rest), Ehrlich ~0.2 of the stain's, cut to ~0.15 because Ziehl's version followed within months: 0.1 x 0.2 x 0.15 = 0.003. Waksman 0.05; total 0.053.","laureate":"paul-ehrlich","laureateName":"Paul Ehrlich"},{"id":"haber-bosch-people-fed","outcomeId":"haber-bosch-fertilizer","domain":"food","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_fed","label":"People whose food depended on Haber-Bosch nitrogen (cumulative births supported)","scope":"direct","low":4600000000,"high":5200000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1913,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.3,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Erisman et al. (2008) estimate synthetic nitrogen made possible about 42% of births in 1908-2008 (about 4.0 billion people) and fed 44% of people alive in 2000 and 48% in 2008. Our World in Data reports these, Smil's 40% for 2000, and Rosa & Gabrielli (2023): about half in 2019. No synthetic fertilizer existed before the 1913 Oppau plant. UN births 2009-2025 (OWID): 2.38B. Low: 4.0B x (Smil's 40% / Erisman's 44%) = 3.64B, plus 2009-25 births at 40% = 0.95B; about 4.6B. High: 4.0B + 2.38B x 50% = 1.19B; about 5.2B. Share 0.3: Haber, with Robert Le Rossignol, found the working laboratory method (1909), but Carl Bosch, Alwin Mittasch and BASF did the essential industrial scale-up (Bosch won his own Nobel in 1931), and later engineers kept improving it. Credited: about 1.4-1.6 billion people.","laureate":"fritz-haber","laureateName":"Fritz Haber"},{"id":"wwi-gas-deaths","outcomeId":"chemical-weapons-wwi","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Soldiers killed by chemical weapons in World War I","scope":"direct","low":90000,"high":100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1915,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.35,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"The OPCW states that more than 90,000 soldiers died from chemical agents in World War I; Prentiss's 1937 count, cited by Friedrich, is about 90,000. High allows about 10% for undercounting. Share 0.35: Haber persuaded Germany's military to adopt gas, devoted his institute to developing it and oversaw the first chlorine attack at Ypres, so he bears a leading share. The rest lies with German commanders and industry and with the Allied chemists and generals who built their own gas arsenals within months.","laureate":"fritz-haber","laureateName":"Fritz Haber"},{"id":"wwi-gas-injuries","outcomeId":"chemical-weapons-wwi","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Soldiers injured by chemical weapons in World War I","scope":"direct","low":900000,"high":1200000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1915,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.35,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"The OPCW says close to a million people left World War I battlefields blind, disfigured or with debilitating injuries from chemical weapons (low 0.9 million). Prentiss's widely cited 1937 tally of about 1.3 million gas casualties includes the roughly 90,000 deaths, so non-fatal injuries are at most about 1.3M - 0.09M = 1.2 million (high); historian L. F. Haber judged the usual totals likely too high. Share 0.35, for the same reasons as the gas-death claim: Haber led the German program, but many other decision-makers on both sides share responsibility. Credited: about 315,000-420,000 people injured.","laureate":"fritz-haber","laureateName":"Fritz Haber"},{"id":"einstein-gps-economic-benefits","outcomeId":"relativity-gps","domain":"technology","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Economic benefits of GPS to US private industry, which depends on relativity corrections","scope":"ripple","low":3200000000000,"high":6400000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1984,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"RTI International's 2019 study for NIST puts US private-sector GPS benefits for 1984-2017 at about $1.4 trillion, range $903 billion-$1.8 trillion (2017 dollars). Its Figure ES-1 shows about $300 billion of benefit in 2017 alone; scaling by the study's own range gives $200B-$400B a year. For 2018-2025 we hold that rate flat, with no further growth: 8 x $200B = $1.6T (low) and 8 x $400B = $3.2T (high). Totals $2.50T-$5.00T in 2017 dollars; BLS CPI-U (313.689 / 245.120 = 1.28) gives about $3.2T-$6.4T in 2024 dollars. Other countries excluded. Share 0.02: Ashby shows GPS clocks would drift unacceptably without relativistic corrections, but atomic clocks, satellites, signal design and computing were equally essential.","laureate":"albert-einstein","laureateName":"Albert Einstein"},{"id":"einstein-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Niels Bohr profile. WSTS worldwide semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 sum to $10.28 trillion nominal, about $14.2 trillion in 2024 dollars using BLS CPI-U annual averages (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. NIST notes that quantum science underpins lasers and transistors. Share 0.01: Einstein supplied founding ideas (light quanta in 1905, quantum heat of solids, stimulated emission in 1916), but quantum theory had many authors, and materials science and engineering were equally essential.","laureate":"albert-einstein","laureateName":"Albert Einstein"},{"id":"einstein-solar-pv-emissions-avoided","outcomeId":"solar-photovoltaic-power","domain":"environment","polarity":"benefit","metric":"emissions_avoided_tco2e","label":"CO2 emissions avoided by solar photovoltaic electricity","scope":"ripple","low":4450000000,"high":6990000000,"unit":"tco2e","fromYear":1983,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Ember data (via Our World in Data) give cumulative world solar generation for 1983-2025 of about 12,713 TWh, including 2,778 TWh in 2025. Ember puts the world's average power-sector intensity at 473 gCO2/kWh in 2024 (peak 555 in 2007). Assuming each solar MWh displaced 0.35-0.55 tCO2, bracketing that average to allow for solar's own life-cycle emissions and uncertainty about what it replaced: 12,713 TWh x 0.35 = 4.45 Gt (low); x 0.55 = 6.99 Gt (high). Share 0.01: the Nobel Foundation lists solar cells as an application of his photoelectric law, but the photovoltaic effect was seen in 1839 and the first practical silicon cell (1954) needed semiconductor physics and decades of engineering.","laureate":"albert-einstein","laureateName":"Albert Einstein"},{"id":"einstein-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"ripple","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"The Radiation Effects Research Foundation estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total (the same range as the Niels Bohr profile; later cancer deaths excluded). Share 0.01: Einstein signed the August 1939 letter, drafted with Szilard, that prompted Roosevelt's uranium committee, plus a second letter in 1940, but he did no bomb work and was denied clearance, and other pressures such as the British MAUD report also drove the project. The bomb's builders and the decision to use it carry nearly all the responsibility.","laureate":"albert-einstein","laureateName":"Albert Einstein"},{"id":"bohr-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Summing WSTS annual worldwide semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 gives $10.28 trillion nominal; converting each year to 2024 dollars with the US CPI (Minneapolis Fed table) gives $14.2 trillion (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. Sales revenue is only a proxy for value. NIST notes that quantum science underpins lasers and transistors. Share 0.01: quantum theory is one essential input alongside materials science and engineering, and within the theory Bohr's 1913 atom and Copenhagen school sit beside Planck, Einstein, Heisenberg, Schrödinger, Born, Dirac, Pauli and the band theorists; his own model was superseded.","laureate":"niels-bohr","laureateName":"Niels Bohr"},{"id":"bohr-nuclear-power-lives-saved","outcomeId":"nuclear-energy","domain":"energy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Air-pollution deaths prevented by nuclear power replacing fossil fuels","scope":"ripple","low":1840000,"high":3060000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1971,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Kharecha and Hansen (2013) calculate a mean of 1.84 million net deaths prevented by world nuclear power in 1971-2009 (low; counts nothing after 2009), averaging 76,000 a year in 2000-2009 (per the authors' NASA GISS science brief). High extends that 2000-2009 rate over 2010-2025: 16 x 76,000 = 1.22 million, so 1.84 + 1.22 = about 3.06 million. Share 0.01: Bohr's liquid-drop theory of fission (with Wheeler) and his uranium-235 insight are early links in a long chain that runs through Hahn, Meitner and Frisch, Fermi's reactor, reactor engineering and decades of industry; he also chaired Denmark's Atomic Energy Commission.","laureate":"niels-bohr","laureateName":"Niels Bohr"},{"id":"bohr-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"ripple","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"The Radiation Effects Research Foundation estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total. Share 0.01: Pais writes that Bohr's 1939 uranium-235 insight led to the Hiroshima bomb, Los Alamos theorists used his nuclear model, and he consulted on the bomb's initiator, but his wartime role was minor. The discovery of fission, the Manhattan Project's scientists and engineers, and the political and military decision to bomb the cities carry nearly all the responsibility.","laureate":"niels-bohr","laureateName":"Niels Bohr"},{"id":"meyerhof-fdg-pet-care-changed","outcomeId":"fdg-pet-cancer-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Cancer patients whose planned care changed after an FDG-PET glucose scan","scope":"ripple","low":8000000,"high":27000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1998,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Otto Warburg profile: UNSCEAR counts about 40M nuclear medicine scans a year, 17% PET, oncology over 90% of PET in most reporting countries; a ramp-up from 1998 gives 96M-132M PET scans to 2025, 70-85% FDG cancer scans = 67M-112M; at 2.5 (low) or 1.5 (high) scans per patient = 27M-75M patients; the US NOPR registry found plans changed after 36.5% of scans (30% for low) = 8M-27M. Share 0.005: hexokinase, the first enzyme of glycolysis, phosphorylates FDG and the product is trapped. Meyerhof first described hexokinase in 1927, but von Euler and Adler also characterized it (1935), and Sokoloff's method, FDG chemistry, PET scanners, trials and Warburg's tumour finding were each essential. Set below de Hevesy's more direct tracer principle. Shares: Warburg 0.03, de Hevesy 0.01, Meyerhof 0.005. Credited: about 40,000-135,000.","laureate":"otto-meyerhof","laureateName":"Otto Meyerhof"},{"id":"hertz-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.002,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Summing WSTS annual worldwide semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 gives $10.28 trillion nominal; converting each year to 2024 dollars with the US CPI (Minneapolis Fed table) gives $14.2 trillion (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. Sales are only a proxy for value. NIST notes that quantum science underpins lasers and transistors. Share 0.002: the Nobel committee credited Franck and Hertz with turning Bohr's energy-level hypotheses into proved facts, but an experiment that confirms a theory earns less than the theory itself (0.01 each for founders such as Bohr and Born). We credit the experiment 0.004 in total, split equally with co-laureate James Franck. Credited: about $28-32 billion.","laureate":"gustav-hertz","laureateName":"Gustav Hertz"},{"id":"hertz-wwi-gas-deaths","outcomeId":"chemical-weapons-wwi","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Soldiers killed by chemical weapons in World War I","scope":"direct","low":90000,"high":100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1915,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.0005,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"The OPCW states that more than 90,000 soldiers died from chemical agents in World War I; Prentiss's 1937 count, cited by Friedrich, is about 90,000. High allows about 10% for undercounting; this matches the range on the Fritz Haber profile. Share 0.0005: Hertz served as an officer in Haber's gas units for part of 1915, until he was severely wounded, and is named among the scientists of the gas brigades. Credited: about 45-50 deaths. He did not invent the weapon or decide to use it. Haber (0.35), the German high command and industry, and the Allied gas programs carry nearly all the responsibility, so this is a token share for months of direct participation.","laureate":"gustav-hertz","laureateName":"Gustav Hertz"},{"id":"hertz-wwi-gas-injuries","outcomeId":"chemical-weapons-wwi","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Soldiers injured by chemical weapons in World War I","scope":"direct","low":900000,"high":1200000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1915,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.0005,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"The OPCW says close to a million people left World War I battlefields blind, disfigured or with debilitating injuries from chemical weapons (low 0.9 million). Prentiss's 1937 tally of about 1.3 million gas casualties includes the roughly 90,000 deaths, so non-fatal injuries are at most about 1.2 million (high). This matches the range on the Fritz Haber profile. Share 0.0005, for the same reasons as the gas-death claim: a token share for an officer's months of service in the gas units, with responsibility lying overwhelmingly with Haber, military leaders and the gas programs on both sides. Credited: about 450-600 people injured.","laureate":"gustav-hertz","laureateName":"Gustav Hertz"},{"id":"franck-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.002,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Bohr, Born, Einstein and Bloch profiles. WSTS worldwide semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 sum to about $10.28 trillion nominal, about $14.2 trillion in 2024 dollars using the Minneapolis Fed CPI table (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. Sales are only a proxy for value; NIST notes that quantum science underpins lasers and transistors. Share 0.002: the Franck-Hertz experiment was the first direct proof of discrete atomic energy levels, but it confirmed Bohr's theory rather than founding quantum mechanics. Hertz merits an equal share (together 0.004, below Bohr's 0.01), and chips also needed the rest of quantum theory, band theory and decades of engineering.","laureate":"james-franck","laureateName":"James Franck"},{"id":"franck-atomic-bombings-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths within two to four months of the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.002,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total, the range used in other profiles (later cancer deaths excluded). Share 0.002, as for Rabi: from December 1942 to December 1943 Franck directed the Met Lab Chemistry Division, whose Section C-I under Seaborg developed the plutonium extraction used at Hanford; Nagasaki was hit with a plutonium bomb. Physics Today says his job was mostly managerial and Seaborg's team did the work; per the UChicago finding aid he was only a consultant from May 1944. Designers, builders and the US decision to use the bombs carry nearly all responsibility. Only the Nagasaki bomb drew on his division's work, so 0.002 of both cities' deaths equals about 0.5-0.6% of Nagasaki's acute deaths. Credited: about 300-490 deaths.","laureate":"james-franck","laureateName":"James Franck"},{"id":"franck-wwi-gas-deaths","outcomeId":"chemical-weapons-wwi","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Soldiers killed by chemical weapons in World War I","scope":"direct","low":90000,"high":100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1915,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.001,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"The OPCW states that more than 90,000 soldiers died from chemical agents in World War I (low); high allows about 10% for undercounting, the same range as the Fritz Haber profile. Share 0.001: Franck was an officer in Pioneer Regiment 35-36, the unit that carried out Germany's chlorine-cloud attacks from 1915, acted as Haber's trusted aide at the front and later tested gas masks. He was one of many officers and scientists in a program led by Haber (share 0.35) and German commanders, and the Allies soon built their own gas arsenals, so his personal share is small. One history places him at Ypres in 1915; NAS and Physics Today do not. Credited: about 90-100 deaths. Injuries (close to a million, per the OPCW) are not claimed separately.","laureate":"james-franck","laureateName":"James Franck"},{"id":"landsteiner-transfusion-lives-saved","outcomeId":"blood-transfusion","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Lives saved worldwide by blood-group-matched transfusion","scope":"direct","low":60000000,"high":200000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1915,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.3,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Units: WHO counted over 75M donations a year in 1998-99 and 120.4M in 2023; a straight line from 1998 through 2025 gives about 2.8B units. For 1915-1997 we assume 1.0B (low) to 2.2B (high, a steady rise from near zero in 1940 to 75M in 1998). Total 3.8B-5.0B units. The Red Cross says the average red-cell transfusion is about 3 units, so 1.27B-1.67B transfusions. We assume 5% (low) to 12% (high) of them averted a death (an unsourced judgment, hence low confidence): 63M-200M, rounded to 60M-200M. At 1998 volumes that is 1.25M-3M lives a year, consistent with WHO's statement that transfusion saves millions of lives yearly. Popular claims of 1 billion lives are unsourced; we stay far below. Share 0.3: his ABO and Rh discoveries were the precondition, but cross-matching, citrate storage, blood banking and infection screening by others were also essential.","laureate":"karl-landsteiner","laureateName":"Karl Landsteiner"},{"id":"landsteiner-polio-paralysis-averted","outcomeId":"polio-vaccination","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People spared polio paralysis by vaccination since 1988","scope":"ripple","low":18000000,"high":22000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1988,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"The Global Polio Eradication Initiative states that since 1988, 20 million people are walking who would otherwise have been paralyzed by polio. We use 18M-22M to reflect uncertainty in that modeled figure, and we leave out gains before 1988, so the total is conservative. Share 0.02: Landsteiner and Popper's 1908 finding that polio is caused by a transmissible agent, apparently a virus (Flexner and Lewis reached it independently in 1909), was an essential first step, but the vaccines required decades of later work, including Jonas Salk's and Albert Sabin's vaccines, plus mass immunization campaigns reaching billions of children.","laureate":"karl-landsteiner","laureateName":"Karl Landsteiner"},{"id":"landsteiner-rh-disease-deaths-prevented","outcomeId":"rh-disease-prevention","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Fetal and newborn deaths from Rh disease prevented by anti-D immunoglobulin, 1968-2025","scope":"ripple","low":4500000,"high":7000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1968,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Landsteiner and Wiener found the Rh antigen in 1940, the cause of hemolytic disease of the newborn (s10, s6). Anti-D immunoglobulin (licensed 1968) stops Rh-negative mothers forming antibodies. FIGO/ICM (s22): Rh disease still causes >160,000 perinatal deaths a year, only 50% below the pre-anti-D era, as about half of eligible women go without it (s23). So about 160,000 are averted a year now. Low: linear rise from 0 in 1968 to 160,000 in 2025: 58 x 80,000 = 4.6M (4.5M). High: rise complete by 1995 (rich countries adopted within a year, s24), then flat: 28 x 80,000 + 30 x 160,000 = 7.0M. Check: about 10,000 US newborn deaths a year before 1968 (s24). Prevented cases never needed transfusion: no overlap with that claim. Share 0.01: Wiener co-discovered Rh; Levine and Stetson found the antibody (1939) and tied it to the disease; Freda, Gorman, Pollack, Finn, Clarke made the prophylaxis.","laureate":"karl-landsteiner","laureateName":"Karl Landsteiner"},{"id":"warburg-fdg-pet-care-changed","outcomeId":"fdg-pet-cancer-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Cancer patients whose planned care changed after an FDG-PET glucose scan","scope":"ripple","low":8000000,"high":27000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1998,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"UNSCEAR: about 40M nuclear medicine scans a year worldwide (2009-18 surveys), 17% of them PET, so 6.8M PET a year; the US alone did 2.09M in 2018 (IMV). Scans: low = quadratic rise from 0 in 1998 (Medicare coverage) to 6.8M in 2018, then flat = 96M; high = linear rise, then +6% a year (US grew 10-12% in 2023-24) = 132M. FDG cancer share 0.70-0.85 (US: FDG 74% of scans; oncology about 90%) = 67M-112M. At 2.5 (low) or 1.5 (high) scans per patient (Gallach et al. assume at least 1) = 27M-75M patients. NOPR (US Medicare): plans changed after 36.5% of scans; use 30% (low) and 36.5% (high) = 8M-27M. Share 0.03: tumors' glucose hunger, which Warburg measured, is why FDG works, but FDG chemistry, PET physics, scanners, PET/CT and clinical trials by many others were essential.","laureate":"otto-warburg","laureateName":"Otto Warburg"},{"id":"loewi-gpcr-drug-sales","outcomeId":"gpcr-drug-targets","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of drugs that act on G-protein-coupled receptors, 1990-2025 (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":4400000000000,"high":5200000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1990,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the Lefkowitz profile so totals line up. Low case: GPCR drugs ~27% of the drug market (Hauser 2017); high case: 35%, Sriram & Insel's share of approved drugs. Applied to IMS prescription sales of $127.7B (1990) and $282.5B (2000) (WHO 2004, Table 4.2), then ~$178B a year in 2011-15 (Hauser: $890B for the 5 years), held flat or grown 3%/yr to 2025: $4.4T low, $5.2T high, nominal. Share: using drug counts as a stand-in for sales, Hauser counts 321 of 481 approved GPCR drugs (67%) acting on aminergic receptors (adrenaline, dopamine, acetylcholine and similar), the kind of signalling Loewi first proved. Within that class his credit is 0.75%, because Elliott proposed the idea, Dale's school extended it, and others found further transmitters, receptors and the drugs themselves: 0.67 x 0.0075 = 0.005. Sales measure spending, not benefit.","laureate":"otto-loewi","laureateName":"Otto Loewi"},{"id":"hevesy-tracer-principle-tc99m-scans","outcomeId":"technetium-99m-diagnostic-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People given diagnostic nuclear medicine scans with technetium-99m, which rely on the tracer principle","scope":"ripple","low":580000000,"high":1330000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1961,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Segrè profile. UNSCEAR: world diagnostic nuclear medicine ran 24M procedures a year (1985-90), 32.5M (1991-96), 32.7M (1997-2007) and 40M (2009-18); that profile's model, from the first clinical use in 1960 (BNL), gives about 1.66 billion procedures through 2025. Tc-99m is used in about 80% today (UNSCEAR, BNL); low assumes 70% and two scans per person (0.7 x 1.66B / 2 = 580M), high 80% and one scan each (1.33B). Share 0.02: every such scan relies on Hevesy's principle that a radioactive isotope behaves like the stable element, so its radiation shows where the element goes (a 2020 JNM letter calls it the basis of all diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine). But Paneth shared the first experiments, and the scans also needed artificial isotopes, Segrè's Tc-99m, Brookhaven's generator and kits, gamma cameras and clinicians. Credited: about 12M-27M.","laureate":"george-de-hevesy","laureateName":"George de Hevesy"},{"id":"hevesy-tracer-principle-fdg-pet","outcomeId":"fdg-pet-cancer-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Cancer patients whose planned care changed after an FDG-PET scan, a tracer-principle technique","scope":"ripple","low":8000000,"high":27000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1998,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Warburg profile. UNSCEAR: about 40M diagnostic nuclear medicine procedures a year (2009-18), PET 17% of them (about 6.8M), oncology over 90% of PET, and FDG PET/CT now the main imaging method for many cancers. That profile models about 96M-132M PET scans from 1998 to 2025, 70-85% of them FDG cancer scans, at 1.5-2.5 scans per patient, then applies the National Oncologic PET Registry finding that physicians changed intended management after 36.5% of scans (30% for low): 8M-27M. Share 0.01: FDG imaging is a direct use of the tracer principle, which Sokoloff's group applied to glucose metabolism in 1975 (JNM), but it also rests on Warburg's cancer metabolism work, FDG chemistry, PET physics and scanners. Credited: about 80,000-270,000.","laureate":"george-de-hevesy","laureateName":"George de Hevesy"},{"id":"hevesy-tracer-principle-radionuclide-therapy","outcomeId":"radionuclide-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Patients treated with radioactive drugs, mostly radioiodine for thyroid disease, since 1946","scope":"ripple","low":20000000,"high":60000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1946,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"UNSCEAR: about 0.88M radionuclide therapy treatments a year in 1997-2007 and 1.4M (+/-35%) in 2009-18; 74% are radioiodine for thyroid disease. Radioiodine therapy began in 1941 and isotopes became plentiful after WWII (JNM), so start in 1946. Treatments: 1946-2001 rising from 0 to 0.88M, linear (56 x 0.44M = 24.6M) or quadratic (56 x 0.88M / 3 = 16.4M); 2002-13, 12 x 1.14M = 13.7M; 2014-25, 12 x 1.4M = 16.8M. Totals 46.9M-55.1M; with +/-35%, 30.5M-74.4M. At 1.5 (low) or 1.2 (high) treatments per patient: 20.3M-62.0M, rounded down to 20M-60M people. Share 0.01: radioiodine works because the thyroid takes up radioactive iodine like ordinary iodine, the tracer principle (the 2020 JNM letter says it underlies therapeutic nuclear medicine too), but Saul Hertz's clinical work, reactors, cyclotrons and drug developers did the rest. Credited: 200,000-600,000.","laureate":"george-de-hevesy","laureateName":"George de Hevesy"},{"id":"stern-mri-people-benefited","outcomeId":"nmr-mri-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People who have benefited from MRI examinations worldwide since the early 1980s","scope":"ripple","low":300000000,"high":1100000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1981,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Rabi and Bloch profiles. Nobel Assembly: clinical MRI began in the early 1980s; over 60M exams in 2002. GE HealthCare: over 95M scans a year. Low: 0 (1981) rising to 60M (2002) = 0.66B exams; 60M to 95M over 2003-17 = 1.16B; 95M a year for 2018-25 = 0.76B; total 2.6B. High assumes 110M by 2017 and 130M by 2025 (unsourced): 2.9B. An OECD-data study cites estimates that 20-50% of imaging is low-value, so 50-80% count as beneficial; assume 4 (low) or 2 (high) scans per person: 2.6B x 0.5 / 4 = 0.33B, rounded to 0.3B; 2.9B x 0.8 / 2 = 1.17B, rounded down to 1.1B. Share 0.005, a sixth of Rabi's 0.03: Rabi built his resonance method on Stern's beams and magnetic state-sorting, learned in Stern's lab, and Stern first measured the proton magnetism MRI reads. But bulk NMR, imaging, magnets and computing came from others. Credited: about 1.5M-5.5M people.","laureate":"otto-stern","laureateName":"Otto Stern"},{"id":"stern-gps-atomic-clock-benefits","outcomeId":"relativity-gps","domain":"technology","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Economic benefits of GPS to US private industry, which depends on atomic clocks","scope":"ripple","low":3200000000000,"high":6400000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1984,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.003,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same range as the Einstein and Rabi profiles. RTI International's 2019 study for NIST puts US private-sector GPS benefits for 1984-2017 at about $1.4 trillion, range $903 billion-$1.8 trillion (2017 dollars). Its Figure ES-1 shows about $300 billion of benefit in 2017 alone; scaling by the study's own range gives $200B-$400B a year. For 2018-2025 we hold that rate flat, with no further growth: 8 x $200B = $1.6T (low) and 8 x $400B = $3.2T (high). Totals $2.50T-$5.00T in 2017 dollars; BLS CPI-U (313.689 / 245.120 = 1.28) gives about $3.2T-$6.4T in 2024 dollars. Other countries excluded. Share 0.003: NIST's first atomic clock (1949) used Rabi's resonance technique, which grew from Stern's molecular beams; Rabi (0.01), Ramsey, clock builders and relativity were essential. Credited about $9.6B-$19B.","laureate":"otto-stern","laureateName":"Otto Stern"},{"id":"rabi-mri-patients-benefited","outcomeId":"nmr-mri-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People who have benefited from MRI examinations worldwide since the early 1980s","scope":"ripple","low":300000000,"high":1100000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1981,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Nobel Assembly: clinical MRI began in the early 1980s; in 2002 about 22,000 units did over 60M exams. GE HealthCare (citing OECD 2017 data): about 50,000 units, over 95M scans a year. Low exams: linear rise from 0 (1981) to 60M (2002) = 0.66B; 60M to 95M over 2003-17 = 1.18B; 95M a year for 2018-25 = 0.76B; total 2.6B. High assumes the 95M figure is a floor: a rise to 110M by 2017 and 130M by 2025, total 2.9B. An OECD-data study cites estimates that 20-50% of imaging is low-value, so count 50-80% as beneficial, and assume 4 (low) or 2 (high) scans per person: 2.6B x 0.5 / 4 = 0.33B, rounded to 0.3B; 2.9B x 0.8 / 2 = 1.17B, rounded to 1.1B. Share 0.03: his 1937-38 resonance theory and method underlie all magnetic resonance, but Bloch and Purcell's NMR, Lauterbur and Mansfield's imaging, Ernst's methods and magnet and computer engineering were also essential.","laureate":"isidor-isaac-rabi","laureateName":"Isidor Isaac Rabi"},{"id":"rabi-gps-atomic-clock-benefits","outcomeId":"relativity-gps","domain":"technology","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Economic benefits of GPS to US private industry, which depends on atomic clocks","scope":"ripple","low":3200000000000,"high":6400000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1984,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Einstein profile. RTI International's 2019 study for NIST puts US private-sector GPS benefits for 1984-2017 at about $1.4 trillion, range $903 billion-$1.8 trillion (2017 dollars). Its Figure ES-1 shows about $300 billion of benefit in 2017 alone; scaling by the study's own range gives $200B-$400B a year. For 2018-2025 we hold that rate flat, with no further growth: 8 x $200B = $1.6T (low) and 8 x $400B = $3.2T (high). Totals $2.50T-$5.00T in 2017 dollars; BLS CPI-U (313.689 / 245.120 = 1.28) gives about $3.2T-$6.4T in 2024 dollars. Other countries excluded. Share 0.01: RTI calls the atomic clock perhaps the most critical part of satellite navigation. Rabi proposed it in 1945 from his resonance method, but clock builders, Ramsey, satellites, signal design and relativity corrections were all essential.","laureate":"isidor-isaac-rabi","laureateName":"Isidor Isaac Rabi"},{"id":"rabi-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"ripple","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.002,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"The Radiation Effects Research Foundation estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total (the same range as the Bohr, Einstein and Rotblat profiles; later cancer deaths excluded). Share 0.002: Rabi declined Oppenheimer's offer to be associate director at Los Alamos but from 1944 was a senior consultant to him, advised on broad policy, visited the lab and watched the Trinity test. The Nobel Foundation says he took part in the bomb's development, but our sources document no design work by him, he doubted it could be finished in time to affect the war, and the thousands who built the bombs and the leaders who chose to use them carry nearly all the responsibility. Result: roughly 300-490 deaths credited.","laureate":"isidor-isaac-rabi","laureateName":"Isidor Isaac Rabi"},{"id":"penicillin-lives-saved","outcomeId":"penicillin-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Lives saved by penicillin since it entered medical use","scope":"direct","low":200000000,"high":500000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1942,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Whole outcome: lives saved by penicillin since clinical use began in the early 1940s. Low 200M rounds down the Science Heroes penicillin figure of over 203M (listed on its Florey page); high 500M is the University of Oxford Dunn School's statement that over 500M lives have been saved. Neither source publishes its method, so confidence is low. Share 0.10: Fleming found the mould's effect in 1928 (about 0.15); Florey conceived and led the Oxford programme and trials (about 0.2); Chain proposed and led the biochemistry, purification and structure work (0.10); Heatley, Abraham and the rest of the team (about 0.1); US and UK industry and government, whose fermentation scale-up made mass supply possible, plus later drug developers (about 0.45). Credited to Chain: 0.10 x 200M-500M = 20M-50M lives.","laureate":"ernst-b-chain","laureateName":"Ernst B. Chain"},{"id":"pauli-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Niels Bohr and Albert Einstein profiles. WSTS worldwide semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 sum to about $10.3 trillion nominal, about $14.2 trillion in 2024 dollars after CPI conversion (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. Sales are only a proxy for value. NIST notes that quantum science underpins lasers and transistors. Share 0.01: electrons fill a solid's energy bands one state at a time because of the exclusion principle, and Pauli's 1927 paper was an early use of Fermi-Dirac statistics for electrons in metals. But quantum theory had many authors (Planck, Einstein, Bohr, Heisenberg, Schrödinger, Dirac, Fermi, Bloch and others), and materials science and engineering were equally essential.","laureate":"wolfgang-pauli","laureateName":"Wolfgang Pauli"},{"id":"muller-screwworm-sterile-insect-benefits","outcomeId":"screwworm-eradication-sterile-insect-technique","domain":"food","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Producer benefits from eradicating screwworm with radiation-sterilized flies (US, Mexico, Central America)","scope":"ripple","low":86000000000,"high":109000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1967,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Annual producer benefits: US $796M, Mexico $292M, Central America $77.9M (Wyss, via FAO/IAEA 2005). USDA APHIS (2025) dates the US $796M to 1996, not inflation-adjusted, so x2.0 (BLS CPI) = $1.59B, $0.58B, $0.16B in 2024 dollars; FAO's 896/329/88 set is the same in ~2001 dollars. APHIS puts mid-1970s US benefits, with Mexican outbreaks still recurring, at $200M/yr = $1.17B. Low: US 1967-82 less outbreak years 1972 and 1976 (14 yr) + 1983-2025 (43 yr), all at $1.17B = $66.5B; Mexico 1992-2023 $18.7B; C. America 2001-22 $3.4B; less ~$1.3B program cost x2.0 = ~$86B. High: US 1967-82 at $1.17B ($18.7B) + 1983-2025 at $1.59B ($68.4B); Mexico to 2024 $19.3B; C. America 1995-2023 $4.5B; less $1.3B x1.61 = ~$109B. Mexico's late-2024 reinfestation ends it. Share 0.05: Muller showed radiation sterilizes sperm and urged Knipling to try it; Knipling, Bushland and a 45-year program did the rest.","laureate":"hermann-j-muller","laureateName":"Hermann J. Muller"},{"id":"cori-gsd1-survival","outcomeId":"glycogen-storage-disease-type-1-treatment","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Children with glycogen storage disease type I who survived thanks to dietary treatment (1976-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":2500,"high":11000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1976,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"GSD I affects ~1 in 100,000 births (ACMG 2014; Froissart 2011). Effective treatment began with night-time tube feeding in 1976 (Greene) and cornstarch in the early 1980s. UN births via OWID: high-income countries 1976-2025 = 0.675B (low: treatment only there); high adds upper-middle-income births 2000-2025 (0.961B) = 1.636B. Affected: 6,750-16,360. Before effective treatment most patients died in childhood; now most reach adulthood (Garbade 2021). Assume treatment prevents death in 40% (low) to 70% (high): 2,700-11,450, rounded to 2,500-11,000. Share 0.05: the Coris' 1952 finding that liver glucose-6-phosphatase is missing explained why patients cannot turn glycogen into blood glucose and enabled enzyme diagnosis, but Carl Cori co-authored it and others devised the feeding therapies, gene tests and care.","laureate":"gerty-cori","laureateName":"Gerty Cori"},{"id":"reichstein-addison-replacement-survival","outcomeId":"adrenal-insufficiency-hormone-replacement","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"People with Addison's disease (primary adrenal insufficiency) kept alive by adrenal hormone replacement, 1940-2025","scope":"direct","low":240000,"high":1000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1940,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Untreated Addison's disease was fatal (s4, s13); treated patients now have near-normal survival (Norway 1943-2005: SMR 1.15, s14), though crises still kill some (s27). Autoimmune Addison's incidence 4-6 per million a year (s15), about 70% of primary insufficiency in rich countries (s16). High-income population-years (UN via OWID, s17; 2024-25 held at 2023): 1950-2025 = 87.3B; 1940-2025 = 95.0B. Low: 87.3B x 4/M = 349,000 cases x 70% assumed diagnosed and treated = 244,000, rounded to 240,000. High: 95.0B x 8.6/M (6/0.7) = 814,000, plus upper-middle-income 2000-2025 (74.2B) x 4/M = 297,000; 1.11M x 90% = 1.0M. Excludes secondary insufficiency and congenital adrenal hyperplasia. Share 0.1: he made DOCA, the first usable replacement hormone, and helped decode cortisone, but Kendall, Merck's synthesis, fludrocortisone and clinicians such as Thorn were also essential.","laureate":"tadeus-reichstein","laureateName":"Tadeus Reichstein"},{"id":"reichstein-dexamethasone-covid-lives","outcomeId":"dexamethasone-covid-19","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Lives saved by dexamethasone treatment of severe COVID-19 worldwide, 2020-2025","scope":"ripple","low":620000,"high":2670000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Aguas et al. (s19) projected dexamethasone would save 650,000 lives (90% CI 240,000-1.4M) in Jul-Dec 2020, or 390,000 (130,000-1.0M) if it gives no benefit without oxygen. Reported COVID-19 deaths in that period were 1.38M (WHO via OWID, s20), so lives saved per reported death run from 0.094 (conservative lower bound) to 0.47. RECOVERY reports about 1M saved in the nine months after its June 2020 result (s18), when 2.48M deaths were reported: 0.40. From 16 Jun 2020 to end-2025, 6.63M deaths were reported. Low: 0.094 x 6.63M = 0.62M. High: 0.40 x 6.63M = 2.67M. Both bounds now cover the same 2020-2025 window; the range stays wide because benefit where oxygen is scarce is unproven. Share 0.005: dexamethasone (1958) is a synthetic relative of the hormones Reichstein and Kendall decoded, but its fluorine and methyl changes and the RECOVERY trial were others' work.","laureate":"tadeus-reichstein","laureateName":"Tadeus Reichstein"},{"id":"bloch-mri-people-benefited","outcomeId":"nmr-mri-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People who have benefited from MRI examinations worldwide since the early 1980s","scope":"ripple","low":300000000,"high":1100000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1981,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Rabi profile, so totals line up. Nobel Assembly: clinical MRI began in the early 1980s; >60M exams in 2002. GE HealthCare: >95M scans a year. Low: 0 (1981) rising to 60M (2002) = 0.66B exams; 60M to 95M over 2003-17 = 1.18B; 95M a year in 2018-25 = 0.76B; total 2.6B. High: 110M by 2017, 130M by 2025, total 2.9B. Check: Lohrke et al. cite >300M contrast MRIs by ~2015, with contrast in ~25% of exams, so at least 1.2B exams by then. Martella et al. cite estimates that 20-50% of imaging is low-value, so 50-80% count as beneficial; assume 4 (low) or 2 (high) scans per person: 2.6B x 0.5 / 4 = 0.33B, rounded to 0.3B; 2.9B x 0.8 / 2 = 1.17B, rounded to 1.1B. Share 0.03, like Rabi's: Bloch and Purcell found bulk NMR independently, building on Rabi's method; MRI also needed Lauterbur, Mansfield, Ernst, magnets and computers.","laureate":"felix-bloch","laureateName":"Felix Bloch"},{"id":"bloch-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Bohr and Einstein profiles. WSTS worldwide semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 sum to $10.28 trillion nominal; converting each year with the Minneapolis Fed CPI table gives $14.2 trillion in 2024 dollars (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. NIST notes that quantum science underpins transistors and lasers. Share 0.005: Hofstadter writes that Bloch's 1928 thesis gave the basis of band theory, from which A. H. Wilson's theory of semiconductors followed. But band theory had several authors, including Peierls and Wilson, and chips also needed the rest of quantum theory and decades of materials science and engineering.","laureate":"felix-bloch","laureateName":"Felix Bloch"},{"id":"bloch-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.001,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"The Radiation Effects Research Foundation estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total (the same range as the Bohr and Einstein profiles; later cancer deaths excluded). Share 0.001, as for Rotblat: Bloch measured fission-neutron energies for the project at Stanford and spent a few months of 1943 at Los Alamos, on theory with Bethe and on the implosion method later used in the Nagasaki bomb, before leaving for radar work. His part was minor. The project's leaders, thousands of other scientists and engineers, and the decision to bomb the cities carry nearly all the responsibility.","laureate":"felix-bloch","laureateName":"Felix Bloch"},{"id":"tb-antibiotic-cure-lives-saved","outcomeId":"streptomycin-tb-treatment","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Lives saved by antibiotic treatment of tuberculosis worldwide, which streptomycin began","scope":"direct","low":75000000,"high":124000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1946,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"WHO estimates that efforts against TB saved 83M lives in 2000-2024 (s14, s15), counting deaths averted by TB treatment, plus HIV drugs for TB patients with HIV, against no treatment and a 43% untreated case-fatality rate (s16). Low: 83M minus an assumed 8M (about 10%) for the HIV-drug part (people with HIV were 5.8% of TB cases in 2024, assumed higher earlier) = 75M; nothing before 2000 or for 2025. High: 83M + 3.3M for 2025 (the 2000-2024 average) + 7.8M for the 1990s (Dolin et al.: 88M cases and 30M deaths vs 88M x 0.43 = 37.8M untreated) + 30.1M for 1947-1989 (1990 gap: 7.5M x 0.43 = 3.2M vs 2.5M deaths, about 0.7M a year x 43 years) = about 124M. Share 0.05: Schatz isolated streptomycin, Mayo and MRC doctors proved it, Merck made it, and most lives since the 1960s owe more to isoniazid and rifampicin.","laureate":"selman-a-waksman","laureateName":"Selman A. Waksman"},{"id":"lipmann-statin-deaths-prevented","outcomeId":"statins-cholesterol","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Deaths prevented or postponed by statin therapy worldwide (1987-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":1700000,"high":4800000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Whole-outcome range reused from our Goldstein and Brown profiles so totals line up: about 2.9-3.4B statin person-years in 1987-2025 (scaled from Blais et al.'s 173M lipid-drug users in 2018) x 0.6-1.4 deaths averted per 1,000 person-years (CTT: 10% fewer deaths per 1 mmol/L LDL cut, discounted for real-world use) = 1.74M-4.76M, rounded to 1.7M-4.8M. Link: cholesterol is built from acetyl-CoA, and statins block HMG-CoA reductase, the rate-limiting step (Endo; Lynen's Nobel lecture, which builds on Lipmann's coenzyme A). Share 0.005, below our usual range for foundational work: the chain also needed Lynen, Bloch, Cornforth, Popják, Bucher, Endo, drug makers and trialists, and Nachmansohn and Feldberg found the same cofactor independently.","laureate":"fritz-lipmann","laureateName":"Fritz Lipmann"},{"id":"lipmann-statin-diabetes","outcomeId":"statin-new-onset-diabetes","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Extra diabetes diagnoses caused by statin therapy worldwide (1987-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":2100000,"high":5100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same 2.9-3.4B statin person-years (1987-2025) as the benefit claim (Blais). CTT 2024 individual-patient meta-analysis (19 placebo trials, 123,940 people): in people without diabetes, low/moderate-intensity statins added 1.2 new diagnoses per 1,000 person-years (RR 1.10, placebo 1.2%/yr); high-intensity raised diagnoses 36%, or 4.3 per 1,000 at that 1.2%/yr baseline. MEPS 2008-19: 20% of US statin use was high-intensity (less abroad and earlier, so 5-20%) and 18% of users already had diabetes, so 82% of person-years are at risk. Low: rates cut by a third for real-world dose and adherence, 5% high-intensity: (0.95 x 0.8 + 0.05 x 2.9) x 2.9B x 0.82 = 2.1M. High: (0.8 x 1.2 + 0.2 x 4.3) x 3.4B x 0.82 = 5.1M. CTT: about 62% of new diagnoses were in people already in the top quarter of baseline blood sugar. Share 0.005, matching the benefit claim's long causal chain.","laureate":"fritz-lipmann","laureateName":"Fritz Lipmann"},{"id":"born-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Niels Bohr and Albert Einstein profiles. WSTS worldwide semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 sum to about $10.28 trillion nominal, about $14.2 trillion in 2024 dollars using the US CPI (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. Sales revenue is only a proxy for value. NIST notes that quantum science underpins lasers and transistors. Share 0.01: Born gave matrix mechanics its mathematical form, supplied the probability rule used in every quantum prediction and pioneered the lattice theory of solids, but quantum theory had many authors (Planck, Einstein, Bohr, Heisenberg, Jordan, Schrödinger, Dirac, Pauli and the band theorists), and materials science and engineering were equally essential.","laureate":"max-born","laureateName":"Max Born"},{"id":"tamm-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.001,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Bohr and Einstein profiles. WSTS semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 sum to $10.28 trillion nominal; converting each year with the Minneapolis Fed CPI table gives about $14.2 trillion in 2024 dollars (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. Share 0.001: Tamm's 1932 paper first predicted electron states bound to a crystal surface, which Feinberg and Kirzhnits say became important for transistor physics, and Bardeen's Nobel lecture says the transistor came out of a research program on semiconductor surfaces and surface states. But Bardeen's own 1947 surface-state theory guided that work, and chips needed all of quantum theory plus decades of engineering, so the share is half Landau's 0.002. Credited: about $14-16 billion.","laureate":"igor-y-tamm","laureateName":"Igor Y. Tamm"},{"id":"frank-reactor-physics-nuclear-power-lives-saved","outcomeId":"nuclear-energy","domain":"energy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Air-pollution deaths prevented by nuclear power replacing fossil fuels","scope":"ripple","low":1840000,"high":3060000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1971,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.0003,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Bohr and Moissan profiles. Kharecha and Hansen (2013) calculate that world nuclear power prevented an average of 1.84 million net deaths in 1971-2009 (low), about 76,000 a year in 2000-2009; extending that rate over 2010-2025 adds 16 x 76,000 = 1.22 million, so high = 3.06 million. Share 0.0003: from 1946 Frank's laboratory made precision measurements of neutrons in uranium-graphite lattices in close contact with Igor Kurchatov, took part in launching F-1, the first Soviet reactor, and developed a pulsed method for studying neutron diffusion. But this fed mainly the Soviet line of reactors, a minority of world output; other groups often measured the same constants independently; and fission physics and reactor engineering carry nearly all the credit. It is set well below Moissan's 0.002. Credited: about 550-920 lives.","laureate":"il-ja-m-frank","laureateName":"Il´ja M. Frank"},{"id":"lederberg-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Berg and Kornberg profiles: world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein medicines since Humulin (1982), excluding antibodies and mRNA vaccines. Inputs: 2013 antibody sales ~$75B were about half of biopharma, so non-antibody ~$75B (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originators $53.6B, biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + linear fall to $53.6B in 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + an assumed half of biosimilar sales (~$0.07T) = ~$2.0T. Nominal dollars; sales measure spending, not benefit. Share 0.01 (~$15-20B): cloning vectors drew on his gene-transfer work and plasmid concept, but Esther Lederberg (lambda, co-discoverer of F), R-factor researchers, Cohen and Boyer, Berg (0.05), Kornberg (0.02), restriction-enzyme finders and industry did the rest.","laureate":"joshua-lederberg","laureateName":"Joshua Lederberg"},{"id":"kornberg-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Paul Berg profile: world sales of recombinant medicines other than antibodies and COVID mRNA vaccines (own outcomes), from Humulin insulin in 1982. Inputs: 2013 antibody sales (~$75B) were about half of all biopharma sales, so non-antibody ~$75B (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originator proteins $53.6B, biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp 1982-2013 to $75B ($0.81T) + linear fall to $53.6B over 2014-2021 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-2025 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp 1982-2013 ($1.2T) + the same later years + half of biosimilar sales (~$0.07T) = ~$2.0T. Nominal dollars; sales measure spending, not net benefit. Share 0.02, within the Berg profile's split: his lab's polymerase and ligase were among the reagents of the first recombinant DNA experiments, but splicing, cloning, expression and manufacturing were others' work.","laureate":"arthur-kornberg","laureateName":"Arthur Kornberg"},{"id":"segre-technetium-99m-scans","outcomeId":"technetium-99m-diagnostic-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Diagnostic nuclear medicine scans using technetium-99m, the isotope Segrè and Seaborg discovered","scope":"direct","low":580000000,"high":1330000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1961,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"UNSCEAR: world diagnostic nuclear medicine ran 24M procedures/yr (1985-90), 32.5M (1991-96), 32.7M (1997-2007) and 40M (2009-18). Model: 0 in 1961 (first clinical trial 1960, per BNL) rising linearly to 24M at 1987.5, straight lines between survey midpoints, then 40M/yr through 2025: 318+170+277+418+480 = about 1.66 billion procedures. Tc-99m share about 80% (UNSCEAR, BNL). High = 0.8 x 1.66B = 1.33B, one person per scan. Low = 0.7 x 1.66B x 0.5 (assumes a lower early share and two scans per patient on average) = 580M. Share 0.03: Segrè co-discovered element 43 (with Perrier) and the Tc-99m isomer (with Seaborg), but use depended on Brookhaven's generator, gamma cameras, labeling kits and isotope supply, and others would likely have found the isomer soon. Credited: about 17M-40M.","laureate":"emilio-segre","laureateName":"Emilio Segrè"},{"id":"segre-atomic-bombings-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths within two to four months of the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total; later cancers are excluded, as in other profiles. Share 0.01: Segrè worked on the bomb directly. In 1941 he helped establish plutonium-239's fission properties with Kennedy, Seaborg and Wahl, and in 1944 his Los Alamos group's spontaneous-fission measurements showed a plutonium gun bomb would fail, forcing the implosion design of the Nagasaki bomb. His role bears mainly on Nagasaki; 0.01 of the total equals about 2.5-3% of Nagasaki's deaths. Thousands of scientists and workers built the bombs, others invented and engineered the implosion method, and US leaders chose to use them. Credited: about 1,500-2,500 deaths.","laureate":"emilio-segre","laureateName":"Emilio Segrè"},{"id":"hofstadter-nai-gamma-camera-scans","outcomeId":"technetium-99m-diagnostic-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Technetium-99m diagnostic scans, read mainly by gamma cameras built on his sodium iodide crystal","scope":"ripple","low":580000000,"high":1330000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1961,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Segrè profile. UNSCEAR: world diagnostic nuclear medicine ran 24M procedures/yr (1985-90), 32.5M (1991-96), 32.7M (1997-2007), 40M (2009-18). Linear rise from 0 in 1961 to 24M at 1987.5, straight lines between survey midpoints, then 40M/yr to 2025: 318+170+277+418+480 = about 1.66B. Tc-99m share about 80% (UNSCEAR, BNL). High = 0.8 x 1.66B = 1.33B, one person per scan; low = 0.7 x 1.66B x 0.5 (lower early share, two scans per patient) = 580M. Share 0.02: Tc-99m's gamma rays are read mainly by Anger cameras built on his NaI(Tl) crystal, long the dominant SPECT detector. But Anger's camera, the isotope, generator, kits and clinicians were equally essential; CsI(Tl) is a partial substitute and some newer cameras use CZT. Credited: about 12M-27M.","laureate":"robert-hofstadter","laureateName":"Robert Hofstadter"},{"id":"landau-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.002,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Bohr, Einstein, Pauli, Born and Bloch profiles. WSTS semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 sum to $10.28 trillion nominal; converting each year with the Minneapolis Fed CPI table gives about $14.2 trillion in 2024 dollars (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. Share 0.002: Landau's quasiparticle method and Fermi-liquid theory became the standard description of electrons in metals, his 1930 Landau levels underlie the quantum Hall resistance standard, and the Landau-Lifshitz equation models spin-based memory. But band theory (Bloch, 0.005) bears more directly on semiconductors, quantum theory had many authors, and engineering was equally essential. Credited: about $28-32 billion.","laureate":"lev-landau","laureateName":"Lev Landau"},{"id":"wigner-nuclear-power-lives-saved","outcomeId":"nuclear-energy","domain":"energy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Air-pollution deaths prevented by nuclear power replacing fossil fuels","scope":"ripple","low":1840000,"high":3060000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1971,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same range as the Bohr profile. Kharecha and Hansen (2013) calculate that world nuclear power prevented a mean 1.84 million air-pollution deaths in 1971-2009 (low; nothing after 2009 counted), averaging 76,000 a year in 2000-2009. High extends that rate over 2010-2025: 16 x 76,000 = 1.22 million, so 1.84 + 1.22 = about 3.06 million. The total assumes nuclear displaced fossil fuels, mostly coal. Share 0.01: Wigner designed the first large water-cooled production reactors, led design of the Materials Test Reactor (a precursor of commercial plants) whose fuel-element design spread worldwide, set up the training school that taught Hyman Rickover, and co-wrote a 1958 textbook on reactor theory. But power reactors equally rest on fission's discoverers, Fermi's first pile, the Navy's reactor program and decades of industry engineering. Credited: about 18,400-30,600 lives.","laureate":"eugene-wigner","laureateName":"Eugene Wigner"},{"id":"wigner-quantum-electronics-economy","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative world semiconductor sales, a proxy for the quantum-based electronics economy","scope":"ripple","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.003,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Bohr, Bloch and Einstein profiles: WSTS worldwide semiconductor billings for 1986-2025 in 2024 dollars (CPI) give $14.2 trillion (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. Sales are only a proxy for value. NIST notes that quantum science underpins transistors and lasers. Share 0.003: with his student Frederick Seitz, Wigner derived a real metal's binding energy essentially from quantum fundamentals (sodium, 1933), helping open solid-state physics to quantum theory, and John Bardeen, co-inventor of the transistor, entered the field as his student. That is less central than Bloch's band theory (0.005), and chips needed many other theorists, materials scientists and engineers. Credited: about $43-48 billion.","laureate":"eugene-wigner","laureateName":"Eugene Wigner"},{"id":"wigner-atomic-bombings-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths within two to four months of the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total (the same range as the Bohr, Bethe, Segrè and Einstein profiles; later cancers excluded). Share 0.01: Wigner helped start the project, joining Szilard to enlist Einstein's warning in July 1939, and from 1942 led the Chicago group that designed the Hanford reactors whose plutonium went into the Nagasaki bomb. His design role bears mainly on Nagasaki; 0.01 of the total equals about 2.5-3% of Nagasaki's deaths. DuPont engineered and built the reactors, chemists extracted the plutonium, Los Alamos designed the bomb, Hiroshima's uranium came from Oak Ridge, and US leaders chose to use the bombs; he also signed the July 1945 petition against use without warning. Credited: about 1,500-2,460 deaths.","laureate":"eugene-wigner","laureateName":"Eugene Wigner"},{"id":"bloch-statin-deaths-prevented","outcomeId":"statins-cholesterol","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Deaths prevented or postponed by statin therapy worldwide (1987-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":1700000,"high":4800000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range matches Goldstein and Brown. Users: Blais, 173M on lipid drugs in 2018 in 83 countries (used as a near-global total), per-capita use up ~50% since 2008 (~110M then); assume 85% statins: ~95M (2008), ~147M (2018). Person-years: 1987-2008 ramp from zero 0.7-1.0B; 2008-18 1.2B; 2018-25 1.0-1.2B. Total 2.9-3.4B. Effect: CTT 2005 trials had 8,186 deaths in 90,056 people over ~5 yrs (~1.8%/yr) and 12% fewer deaths per mmol/L LDL cut (mean 1.09), ~2.4 averted per 1,000 person-years; real-world 0.6-1.4. 2.9B x 0.6 = 1.74M; 3.4B x 1.4 = 4.76M; rounded 1.7-4.8M. Check: Grabowski, ~40,000 US deaths averted in 2008. Share 0.02: Bloch was one of four who mapped most of the pathway (Endo); Bucher and Lynen pinned down the HMG-CoA step; Endo found the first statin; Merck developed it; trials proved it; Goldstein and Brown get 0.05 each.","laureate":"konrad-bloch","laureateName":"Konrad Bloch"},{"id":"bloch-statin-diabetes","outcomeId":"statin-new-onset-diabetes","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Extra diabetes diagnoses caused by statin therapy worldwide (1987-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":2100000,"high":5100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same 2.9-3.4B statin person-years (1987-2025) as the benefit claim (Blais). CTT 2024 individual-patient meta-analysis (19 placebo trials, 123,940 people): in people without diabetes, low/moderate-intensity statins added 1.2 new diagnoses per 1,000 person-years (RR 1.10, placebo 1.2%/yr); high-intensity raised diagnoses 36%, or 4.3 per 1,000 at that 1.2%/yr baseline. MEPS 2008-19: 20% of US statin use was high-intensity (less abroad and earlier, so 5-20%) and 18% of users already had diabetes, so 82% of person-years are at risk. Low: rates cut by a third for real-world dose and adherence, 5% high-intensity: (0.95 x 0.8 + 0.05 x 2.9) x 2.9B x 0.82 = 2.1M. High: (0.8 x 1.2 + 0.2 x 4.3) x 3.4B x 0.82 = 5.1M. CTT: about 62% of new diagnoses were in people already in the top quarter of baseline blood sugar. Share 0.02, matching the benefit claim.","laureate":"konrad-bloch","laureateName":"Konrad Bloch"},{"id":"lwoff-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.002,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Berg, Kornberg, Lederberg, Luria and Jacob profiles: world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein medicines since Humulin (1982). 2013 antibody sales ~$75B were about half of biopharma (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originators $53.6B, biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp to $75B over 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + fall to $53.6B in 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + half of biosimilars = ~$2.0T. Sales, not net benefit. Share 0.002 (~$3-4B): Lwoff named the prophage and found its induction (1950); lambda, a prophage, became a key cloning vector, and pET/T7 hosts carry a lambda prophage (DE3) while pL vectors use induction as a switch (Casjens 2015; Rosano 2014). But Esther Lederberg found lambda, and Jacob (0.005), Luria (0.005), Berg, Cohen, Boyer and industry did the rest.","laureate":"andre-lwoff","laureateName":"André Lwoff"},{"id":"jacob-mrna-vaccines-lives","outcomeId":"mrna-vaccines","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Deaths averted by mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, credited to the discovery of messenger RNA","scope":"ripple","low":870000,"high":8900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the shared mrna-vaccines outcome. All COVID-19 vaccines: 2.5M deaths averted to Oct 2024 (Ioannidis 2025; 1 per 5,400 doses, so ~13.5B doses) to 19.8M in year one (Watson 2022, excess deaths). mRNA doses: Pfizer-BioNTech 4.3B by Mar 2023 + Moderna ~0.81B in 2021 = ~5.1B (~38%). Low 2.5M x 35% = 0.87M; high 19.8M x 45% = 8.9M. Share 0.005: the vaccines deliver messenger RNA, which Jacob and Monod proposed and Brenner, Jacob and Meselson demonstrated in 1961, in parallel with Gros's team in Watson's lab; many contributed (Cobb 2015). The vaccines also needed the genetic code (Nirenberg 0.005), modified bases (Kariko and Weissman 0.3), lipid delivery, a stabilized spike and industrial work to stabilize mRNA. His slice: 4,350-44,500 lives.","laureate":"francois-jacob","laureateName":"François Jacob"},{"id":"jacob-mrna-vaccine-myocarditis","outcomeId":"mrna-vaccine-myocarditis","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Myocarditis cases linked to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, credited to the discovery of messenger RNA","scope":"ripple","low":20000,"high":70000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the shared mrna-vaccine-myocarditis outcome. Oster et al. (2022): 1,626 confirmed cases after 354.1M US mRNA doses = 0.46 per 100,000 doses (passive reporting, likely an undercount). Mevorach et al. (2021), Israeli active surveillance: 136 definite or probable cases among ~5.1M two-dose recipients (at least 10.2M doses) = ~1.3 per 100,000 doses. Applied to ~5.1B mRNA doses (Pfizer-BioNTech 4.3B + Moderna 0.81B): 23,000, rounded down to 20,000, to 66,000, rounded up to 70,000. In Israel 95% of cases were mild; one was fatal. Share 0.005, matching the benefit claim: about 100-350 cases.","laureate":"francois-jacob","laureateName":"François Jacob"},{"id":"jacob-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Shared range (as Berg, Kornberg, Lederberg): world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein drugs since Humulin (1982). 2013 antibody sales ~$75B were about half of biopharma, so non-antibody ~$75B (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originators $53.6B, biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + fall to $53.6B in 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + half of biosimilars = ~$2.0T. Nominal sales, not net benefit. Share 0.005 (~$7.5-10B): lac switches are staples of E. coli expression vectors (Rosano 2014); the first bacterial human insulin was a beta-galactosidase fusion (Goeddel 1979). But most novel biologics are made in mammalian cells (Walsh 2022), Monod co-discovered the operon, and Berg (0.05), Kornberg (0.02), Lederberg (0.01), Luria (0.005), Cohen, Boyer and industry did the rest.","laureate":"francois-jacob","laureateName":"François Jacob"},{"id":"feynman-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total (the same range as the Bethe, Bohr, Einstein and Rotblat profiles; later cancer deaths excluded). Scope is direct because his own wartime work went into the weapon. Share 0.005: Feynman was a junior physicist who became one of several group leaders in the Theoretical Division that Bethe headed (Bethe's share: 0.02). He worked on the yield formula and helped run the punched-card implosion calculations behind the Nagasaki bomb, cutting each from about three months to under three weeks. That is more hands-on bomb work than Rabi's (0.002) or Rotblat's (0.001), but less decisive than Segrè's (0.01). Thousands of others built the bombs, and US leaders chose to use them. Result: about 750-1,230 deaths credited.","laureate":"richard-p-feynman","laureateName":"Richard P. Feynman"},{"id":"bethe-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total (the same range as the Bohr, Einstein and Rotblat profiles; later cancer deaths excluded). Share 0.02: from 1943 Bethe headed the Los Alamos Theoretical Division, which calculated critical masses and yields and completed the implosion theory used in the Nagasaki bomb. That is a larger role than Bohr's or Einstein's (0.01 each), but he was one of several division leaders under Oppenheimer in a project employing thousands, the discovery of fission and the engineering were equally essential, and US leaders decided to use the bombs. Result: about 3,000-4,900 deaths credited.","laureate":"hans-bethe","laureateName":"Hans Bethe"},{"id":"bethe-particle-therapy-patients","outcomeId":"particle-beam-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Cancer patients treated with proton and other particle-beam therapy","scope":"ripple","low":450000,"high":500000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1954,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"A 2026 Frontiers in Oncology review, citing PTCOG, reports that more than 450,000 patients had been treated with particle (mostly proton) therapy by about the end of 2024 (low). Newhauser and Zhang cite at least 93,895 by March 2013, so about (450,000 - 93,895) / 11.75 years = 30,000 a year since; high adds a generous 50,000 for 2025. This counts patients treated, not lives saved, and protons' edge over modern X-ray therapy is debated for many cancers. Share 0.005: planning uses the Bethe-Bloch stopping-power formula (Bethe 1930, refined by Felix Bloch in 1933) to predict where a beam stops, but a simpler empirical rule from 1905 is also fairly accurate, and Bragg's peak, Wilson's 1946 proposal, accelerators, imaging and clinicians were all essential. Result: about 2,250-2,500 patients.","laureate":"hans-bethe","laureateName":"Hans Bethe"},{"id":"nirenberg-mrna-vaccines-lives","outcomeId":"mrna-vaccines","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Deaths averted by mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, credited to deciphering the genetic code","scope":"ripple","low":870000,"high":8900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the shared mrna-vaccines outcome. All COVID-19 vaccines: 2.5M deaths averted to Oct 2024 (Ioannidis 2025; 1 per 5,400 doses, so ~13.5B doses) to 19.8M in year one (Watson 2022, excess deaths). mRNA doses: Pfizer-BioNTech 4.3B by Mar 2023 + Moderna 0.81B in 2021 = ~5.1B (~38%). Low 2.5M x 35% = 0.87M; high 19.8M x 45% = 8.9M. Share 0.005: the vaccines are synthetic mRNAs whose coding sequence is written (and codon-optimized) with the codon table Nirenberg's lab helped decipher, and his 1961 poly-U test first showed a man-made RNA directing protein synthesis. But the code was shared work (Matthaei, Khorana, Holley, Ochoa's group, Leder, Crick and Brenner), mRNA was discovered by others, and the vaccines also needed in vitro transcription, modified bases (Kariko and Weissman, 0.3), lipid nanoparticles and a stabilized spike. His slice: 4,350-44,500 lives.","laureate":"marshall-w-nirenberg","laureateName":"Marshall W. Nirenberg"},{"id":"nirenberg-mrna-vaccine-myocarditis","outcomeId":"mrna-vaccine-myocarditis","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Myocarditis cases linked to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, credited to deciphering the genetic code","scope":"ripple","low":20000,"high":70000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the shared mrna-vaccine-myocarditis outcome. Oster et al. (2022): 1,626 confirmed cases after 354.1M US mRNA doses = 0.46 per 100,000 doses (passive reporting, likely an undercount). Mevorach et al. (2021), Israeli active surveillance: 136 definite or probable cases among about 5.1M two-dose recipients (at least 10.2M doses) = about 1.3 per 100,000 doses. Applied to about 5.1B mRNA doses (Pfizer-BioNTech 4.3B + Moderna 0.81B): 23,000, rounded down to 20,000, to 66,000, rounded up to 70,000. In Israel 95% of cases were mild; one was fatal. Share 0.005, matching the benefit claim: about 100-350 cases.","laureate":"marshall-w-nirenberg","laureateName":"Marshall W. Nirenberg"},{"id":"luria-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.003,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Berg, Kornberg, Lederberg, Jacob and Lwoff profiles: world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein medicines since Humulin (1982). Inputs: 2013 antibody sales ~$75B were about half of biopharma, so non-antibody ~$75B (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originators $53.6B, biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + linear fall to $53.6B over 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + half of biosimilar sales (~$0.07T) = ~$2.0T. Nominal dollars; sales measure spending, not benefit. Share 0.003 (~$4.5-6B): Luria and Human's 1952 paper is one of four early reports of host-controlled variation cited by Arber, and their system proved to be modification-dependent restriction, not the types Arber and Smith characterized. Others did the rest.","laureate":"salvador-e-luria","laureateName":"Salvador E. Luria"},{"id":"axelrod-reuptake-antidepressant-responders","outcomeId":"reuptake-inhibitor-antidepressants","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People in 32 OECD countries whose depression responds to reuptake blockers beyond placebo","scope":"ripple","low":4100000,"high":13900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1988,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Snapshot of current users, a floor. US: 13.2% of adults took an antidepressant in the past 30 days (CDC, 2015-18) x 258.3M adults = 34.1M. 31 other OECD countries (latest year 2014-21; OECD via OWID) use 48.2M defined daily doses a day in 685M people; at 1.0-1.4 doses per user (one clinic: 1.0-1.6 for sertraline, paroxetine, escitalopram, s25; lower ratios mean more users) = 34.5-48.2M. Total 68.6-82.3M; assume 80-90% take reuptake blockers = 54.9-74.1M. Gain over placebo: placebo response 35-40% (Furukawa 2016); odds ratios 1.37-2.13, least and most effective of 21 drugs (Cipriani 2018) = +7.45 to +18.7 points. 54.9M x 0.0745 = 4.1M; 74.1M x 0.187 = 13.9M. Assumes trial response in depression holds for all users, including those treated for anxiety or pain. Past users excluded. Share 0.05: Axelrod proved reuptake and that tricyclics block it; industry teams designed the selective drugs.","laureate":"julius-axelrod","laureateName":"Julius Axelrod"},{"id":"axelrod-paracetamol-overdose-deaths","outcomeId":"paracetamol-overdose-deaths","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from paracetamol (acetaminophen) overdose in the US and England and Wales, 1980-2025","scope":"direct","low":4600,"high":26500,"unit":"people","fromYear":1980,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"FDA analysis (Nourjah 2006): about 458 US deaths a year from paracetamol overdose, 100 of them unintentional. England and Wales (Hawton 2013): the 1998 pack-size law cut paracetamol-only suicide and open-verdict deaths by about 17 a quarter, a 43% fall, implying about 40 a quarter (158 a year) before and 90 a year after. Low: US unintentional deaths only, 100 x 46 years (1980-2025) = 4,600. High: all US deaths, 458 x 46 = 21,070, plus England and Wales 158 x 19 (1980-98) = 3,000 and 90 x 27 (1999-2025) = 2,430; total about 26,500. Rates held flat though use changed; other countries excluded, so likely an undercount. Share 0.05: Brodie and Axelrod proposed the compound as a drug in 1948, but it was already known as a breakdown product of acetanilide, companies marketed it, and most deaths are intentional overdoses.","laureate":"julius-axelrod","laureateName":"Julius Axelrod"},{"id":"index-fund-fee-savings-us","outcomeId":"portfolio-theory-index-investing","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Fees saved by US investors holding index funds instead of higher-cost actively managed funds","scope":"ripple","low":580000000000,"high":760000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1976,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"US fees only, nominal dollars. ICI: index mutual funds plus index ETFs held $1.9T (2010), $4.2T (2015), $9.9T (2020), $16.2T (2024) and $19.1T (2025); interpolating gives $112-120T of asset-years for 2011-25. Fee gap from ICI asset-weighted expense ratios, assuming 70-85% of index assets are equity: in 2025 active equity funds 0.64% vs index 0.05% (mutual funds) or 0.14% (ETFs); active bond 0.44% vs 0.05%/0.09%: a blended gap of 0.48-0.51 points, wider earlier (active equity 0.96% in 2010). Low: 0.48 points in every year x $112T = $0.54T, plus 2006-10 (index mutual funds $0.62T in 2005, all index $1.9T in 2010) = $0.58T. High: year-specific gaps averaging ~0.57 x $120T = $0.68T, plus ~$0.08T for 1976-2010 = $0.76T. Trading-cost savings excluded. Share 0.03: his 1974 challenge helped spur the first index fund (per Bogle); Bogle built it, and Malkiel, Ellis and others share the idea.","laureate":"paul-a-samuelson","laureateName":"Paul A. Samuelson"},{"id":"gabor-security-hologram-sales","outcomeId":"holography","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Global sales of security holograms for banknotes, cards, IDs and products (1985-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":50000000000,"high":70000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1985,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"FMI (2025) values security-hologram sales at $4.73B in 2025; the trade body IOTA calls optical security a billion-dollar industry. Embossed holograms spread from the 1980s (Johnston), so we backcast from 1985: sum of 4.73B/(1+g)^k for k=0..40. At g=6.6%/yr (FMI's forecast growth; 1985 market ~$0.37B) the total is $70.8B; at g=10%/yr (1985 ~$0.10B) it is $51.0B. Range $50B-$70B, treated as 2024 dollars. Security holograms only; packaging foils, optics, testing and microscopy excluded. Share 0.05: Gabor invented the principle, but these products also needed the laser, Leith and Upatnieks's off-axis method, Benton's rainbow holograms behind embossing and mass replication; about half the market is dot-matrix and strip products; and sales mostly pay for materials and manufacturing. Sales are not net social value.","laureate":"dennis-gabor","laureateName":"Dennis Gabor"},{"id":"anfinsen-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Berg, Kornberg, Lederberg, Jacob, Luria and Lwoff profiles: world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein medicines since Humulin (1982). 2013 antibody sales (~$75B) were about half of biopharma (Ecker 2015); in 2021 non-antibody originator proteins sold $53.6B and biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp to $75B over 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + fall to $53.6B in 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + half of biosimilars = ~$2.0T. Sales, not net benefit. Share 0.005 (~$8-10B): his hypothesis told industry that a correctly made chain folds, or can be refolded from bacterial clumps, into active protein (Schechter; Yamaguchi 2014), but cloning, expression and manufacturing were others' work.","laureate":"christian-anfinsen","laureateName":"Christian Anfinsen"},{"id":"anfinsen-antibody-purification-sales","outcomeId":"monoclonal-antibody-drugs","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of monoclonal antibody medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":2000000000000,"high":2600000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1986,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.002,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range matches the Milstein profile. Sales ~$39B (2008), ~$75B (2013) (Ecker 2015), $115.2B (2018, Lu 2020), $217B (2021, Walsh 2022); linear interpolation gives ~$1.39T for 2008-21. Low: add 2022-25 flat at $217B ($0.87T), ignore pre-2008, cut 10% for Fc-fusion drugs: (1.39+0.87) x 0.9 = ~$2.0T. High: add ~$0.18T for 1998-2007 and 8% yearly growth in 2022-25 (~$1.06T): ~$2.6T. Nominal dollars; sales, not health gained. Share 0.002 (~$4-5B): Protein A affinity chromatography has long been the workhorse capture step in commercial antibody purification (Liu 2010). Anfinsen was senior author of the 1968 paper that introduced affinity chromatography, but the Wolf Prize credits the concept to Cuatrecasas and Wilchek, an earlier affinity method existed (Campbell 1951), and Protein A resins came from others.","laureate":"christian-anfinsen","laureateName":"Christian Anfinsen"},{"id":"antibody-structure-mab-patients","outcomeId":"monoclonal-antibody-drugs","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People treated with monoclonal antibody medicines worldwide","scope":"ripple","low":15000000,"high":60000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1986,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Whole-outcome range reused from the shared outcome in the Milstein profile. Floor: Roche reports rituximab treated over 2.7M people by 2017 and tocilizumab over 1M by 2019; if those two of 200+ antibodies are at most a quarter of all patients, the total is about 15M. High: rituximab's 2019 sales ($6.54B) were about 4.4% of a roughly $150B market; 2.7M / 0.044 = about 60M. People treated, not cured. Share 0.02: chimeric and humanized drugs are built on the variable/constant architecture Edelman and Porter revealed, but hybridomas (Kohler and Milstein), antibody engineering, target discovery and drug development did most of the work, and others were near the same structure (for example, the variable and constant regions were first seen in light-chain sequences from other laboratories). We give the Edelman-Porter structure work 0.04 in total, split equally with Porter.","laureate":"gerald-m-edelman","laureateName":"Gerald M. Edelman"},{"id":"antibody-structure-mab-sales","outcomeId":"monoclonal-antibody-drugs","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of monoclonal antibody medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":2000000000000,"high":2600000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1986,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the shared outcome in the Milstein profile. Sourced annual sales: about $39B (2008) and $75B (2013), $115.2B (2018), $217.3B (2021). Linear interpolation gives about $1.39T for 2008-2021. Low: add 2022-2025 flat at $217B a year ($0.87T), ignore earlier years, then cut 10% for Fc-fusion drugs counted in these totals: about $2.0T. High: add about $0.18T for 1998-2007 and 8% yearly growth for 2022-2025 (the forecast rate in Ecker 2015): about $2.6T. Nominal dollars, which understates the 2024-dollar value; sales measure spending, not net benefit. Share 0.02 as for the patients claim.","laureate":"gerald-m-edelman","laureateName":"Gerald M. Edelman"},{"id":"cambodia-bombing-civilian-deaths","outcomeId":"us-bombing-of-cambodia","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Cambodian civilians killed by US bombing, 1969-1973","scope":"direct","low":50000,"high":150000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1969,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.15,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Owen and Kiernan (2006) report the published estimate of 50,000-150,000 Cambodian civilians killed by US bombing and argue the true toll is surely higher, since Air Force data show about 2.76 million tons dropped, five times earlier figures; we keep the published range as conservative. Bombing began in 1965, but only 214 tons fell in 1965-68, so virtually all of it came under Nixon from 1969 to August 1973; about 83% fell after the December 1970 escalation. Share 0.15: Nixon ordered the raids and the military planned and flew them, but Kissinger, as Nixon's closest foreign-policy adviser, shaped the strategy and in December 1970 relayed the order for a massive expansion of the bombing. We count none of the later Khmer Rouge genocide, which the bombing aided only indirectly.","laureate":"henry-kissinger","laureateName":"Henry Kissinger"},{"id":"east-timor-occupation-deaths","outcomeId":"indonesian-occupation-of-east-timor","domain":"human-rights","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Conflict-related deaths during Indonesia's invasion and occupation of East Timor","scope":"ripple","low":90800,"high":183000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1975,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Timor-Leste's truth commission (CAVR), using HRDAG's statistics, puts the minimum at 102,800 (+/-12,000) conflict-related deaths in 1974-1999: about 18,600 killings and 84,200 excess deaths from hunger and illness, concentrated in 1975-1980. Low = 102,800 - 12,000 = 90,800. High = 183,000, CAVR's own upper-bound estimate of total conflict-related mortality, as stated by the Post-CAVR Technical Secretariat (Walsh 2006, published by HRDAG); it replaces a looser 200,000 based on older Portuguese, Indonesian, Church and Amnesty figures. Share 0.02: Indonesia's military and its auxiliaries bear primary responsibility, and Suharto was already planning the invasion. We assume the US green light and continued arms supply account for at most 5-10% of the outcome, and credit Kissinger with about a quarter of that US share, alongside President Ford and others. Credited: about 1,800-3,700 deaths.","laureate":"henry-kissinger","laureateName":"Henry Kissinger"},{"id":"aage-bohr-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.0005,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"The Radiation Effects Research Foundation estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total (the same range as the Niels Bohr, Rotblat and Bloch profiles; later cancer deaths excluded). Share 0.0005, half the Rotblat and Bloch shares: from 1943 to 1945 Aage was his father's assistant and secretary on the British team, and a Los Alamos historian credits father and son with a two-day review concluding that the implosion bomb's initiator would work; it was used at Trinity and Nagasaki. Others designed and built the initiator and the bombs, and US leaders chose to use them. Result: about 75-123 deaths credited.","laureate":"aage-n-bohr","laureateName":"Aage N. Bohr"},{"id":"baltimore-hiv-treatment-deaths-averted","outcomeId":"hiv-antiretroviral-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"AIDS deaths averted worldwide by antiretroviral therapy, whose main drug classes block reverse transcriptase","scope":"ripple","low":26900000,"high":28400000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Same outcome, range and share as the Howard Temin profile. Low: UNAIDS (2025 Global AIDS Update) says 26.9 million deaths have been averted through treatment since the epidemic began (data to 2024). High adds 2025: 2.1 million AIDS deaths at the 2004 peak minus 570,000 in 2025 = about 1.5 million, so 28.4 million (likely low, with 32.1 million on treatment). From 1987, when AZT was approved. Why reverse transcriptase: HIV was first recognized by reverse transcriptase activity (1983), and AZT and the NRTI and NNRTI classes block the enzyme. Share 0.02 (about 540,000-570,000): Baltimore and Temin found the enzyme independently and simultaneously (0.04 together), while HIV's discoverers, AZT's developers, later drug classes such as protease and integrase inhibitors, and treatment programs were essential.","laureate":"david-baltimore","laureateName":"David Baltimore"},{"id":"baltimore-cdna-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome, range and share as the Temin profile (range from the Berg, Kornberg and Luria profiles). Inputs: 2013 antibody sales (~$75B) were about half of biopharma sales, so non-antibody ~$75B (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originator proteins $53.6B and biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + linear fall to $53.6B over 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + half of biosimilar sales (~$0.07T) = ~$2.0T. Nominal dollars; sales measure spending, not benefit. Share 0.005 (~$7.5-10B): reverse transcriptase makes cDNA, DNA copies of messenger RNA, a standard way to isolate and clone the protein-coding parts of genes. Baltimore shares it equally with Temin; restriction enzymes, ligase, vectors, expression systems and manufacturing were others' work.","laureate":"david-baltimore","laureateName":"David Baltimore"},{"id":"baltimore-abl-kinase-cml-deaths-averted","outcomeId":"oncogenes-targeted-cancer-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Chronic myeloid leukemia deaths averted by imatinib and later BCR-ABL kinase inhibitors, 2001-2025","scope":"ripple","low":35000,"high":130000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2001,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the Harold Varmus profile so totals line up: CML deaths averted by BCR-ABL inhibitors (imatinib approved 2001), modeled from SEER US CML death rates against the last pre-imatinib level (0.65 per 100,000 in 1999-2000, held flat or falling 2% a year) versus about 0.30 since 2007, scaled to other high-income countries, plus a small allowance for poorer countries. Other targeted drugs are excluded, so this is a floor for the outcome. Imatinib's main trial: five-year survival 89% vs about 60% in earlier interferon studies. Share 0.03: Baltimore's lab showed in 1980 that the Abelson virus cancer protein is a tyrosine kinase and in 1990 that human BCR-ABL alone causes a CML-like disease in mice, pinpointing the drug target (credited by the Lasker Foundation). Nowell, Rowley, Hunter, Witte, Druker, Lydon, Sawyers and Novartis chemists were also essential.","laureate":"david-baltimore","laureateName":"David Baltimore"},{"id":"baltimore-hiv-vertical-transmission-infections-averted","outcomeId":"hiv-vertical-transmission-prevention","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Children spared HIV by antiretroviral drugs given to their mothers, 2000-2024","scope":"ripple","low":3100000,"high":6400000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2000,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"UNAIDS (Global AIDS Update 2025): programmes to prevent vertical transmission averted nearly 4.4 million [3.1-6.4 million] HIV infections in children in 2000-2024; low and high are that range (UNICEF gives the same 4.4M). Rich-country use from 1994 and 2025 excluded. Counterfactual: no drug prophylaxis. Chain: the first proof, PACTG 076 (1994), showed zidovudine, a reverse-transcriptase blocker, cut transmission from 25.5% to 8.3%; single-dose nevirapine and today's triple therapy, built on two such drugs, followed. Counts children never infected, so it is disjoint from the treatment claim, which counts deaths among people living with HIV. Share 0.02, same as Temin: Baltimore and Temin found the enzyme independently and at the same time (0.04 together); HIV's discoverers, drug makers, trialists and programmes did the rest.","laureate":"david-baltimore","laureateName":"David Baltimore"},{"id":"temin-hiv-treatment-deaths-averted","outcomeId":"hiv-antiretroviral-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"AIDS deaths averted worldwide by antiretroviral therapy, whose main drug classes block reverse transcriptase","scope":"ripple","low":26900000,"high":28400000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Low: UNAIDS (2025 Global AIDS Update, data to 2024) estimates 26.9 million deaths averted by HIV treatment since the epidemic began. High adds 2025: AIDS deaths were 570,000 in 2025 versus 2.1 million at the 2004 peak, when few had treatment; assuming at least the peak toll without treatment adds ~1.5 million, so 28.4 million (likely an underestimate, with 32.1 million on treatment in 2025). From 1987, when AZT was approved. Share 0.02 (~540,000-570,000): NRTIs and NNRTIs, including AZT, tenofovir, and the efavirenz and nevirapine regimens widely used before WHO preferred dolutegravir (2019), block reverse transcriptase, and reverse transcriptase assays identified HIV as a retrovirus in 1983. But Temin shares the enzyme with Baltimore, and HIV's discoverers, the makers of RT and other drug classes (protease and integrase inhibitors), trialists and treatment programs were essential.","laureate":"howard-m-temin","laureateName":"Howard M. Temin"},{"id":"temin-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Berg, Kornberg and Luria profiles: world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein medicines since 1982. Inputs: 2013 antibody sales (~$75B) were about half of biopharma, so non-antibody ~$75B (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originators $53.6B, biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + linear fall to $53.6B over 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + half of biosimilar sales (~$0.07T) = ~$2.0T. Nominal dollars; sales measure spending, not benefit. Share 0.005 (~$7.5-10B): reverse transcriptase makes cDNA, DNA copies of messenger RNA, which became a standard way to clone genes into bacteria (from 1975) and a standard lab reagent. Temin shares it with Baltimore; restriction enzymes, ligase, vectors, expression systems and manufacturing were others' work.","laureate":"howard-m-temin","laureateName":"Howard M. Temin"},{"id":"temin-hiv-vertical-transmission-infections-averted","outcomeId":"hiv-vertical-transmission-prevention","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Children spared HIV by antiretroviral drugs given to their mothers, 2000-2024","scope":"ripple","low":3100000,"high":6400000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2000,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"UNAIDS (Global AIDS Update 2025): programmes to prevent vertical transmission averted nearly 4.4 million [3.1-6.4 million] HIV infections in children in 2000-2024; low and high are that range (UNICEF gives the same 4.4M). Rich-country use from 1994 and 2025 excluded. Counterfactual: no drug prophylaxis. Chain: the first proof, PACTG 076 (1994), showed zidovudine, a reverse-transcriptase blocker, cut transmission from 25.5% to 8.3%; single-dose nevirapine and today's triple therapy, built on two such drugs, followed. Counts children never infected, so it is disjoint from the treatment claim, which counts deaths among people living with HIV. Share 0.02, same as Baltimore: Baltimore and Temin found the enzyme independently and at the same time (0.04 together); HIV's discoverers, drug makers, trialists and programmes did the rest.","laureate":"howard-m-temin","laureateName":"Howard M. Temin"},{"id":"kantorovich-edelman-optimization-benefits","outcomeId":"operations-research-optimization","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Benefits reported by Edelman Award finalist operations-research projects, much of it built on linear programming","scope":"ripple","low":431000000000,"high":690000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1972,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Whole outcome: benefits reported by Franz Edelman Award finalists, the only running tally of applied operations research. INFORMS: over $431B since 1972 (April 2025; $419B earlier). About six projects a year, so a floor. Low $431B as nominal. High ~$690B: same total in 2024 dollars if the average dollar was booked around 2005 (CPI 195.3 vs 313.7, x1.61). Share 0.01 = 0.5 (rough part of finalist value resting on linear programming and its integer and network extensions, not simulation, forecasting or machine learning) x 0.1 (credit to LP's founding ideas vs later algorithms, solvers, computers and project teams) x 0.2 (Kantorovich among founders with Dantzig, Koopmans, von Neumann and Hitchcock; first, but Western practice grew from Dantzig's independent simplex). Attributed: about $4-7B.","laureate":"leonid-vitaliyevich-kantorovich","laureateName":"Leonid Vitaliyevich Kantorovich"},{"id":"hepb-vaccine-deaths-averted-to-2025","outcomeId":"hepatitis-b-vaccine-screening","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Hepatitis B deaths averted by vaccination through 2025","scope":"direct","low":350000,"high":3400000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.2,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Counts deaths already averted by end-2025, not lifetime benefits. Li et al. (Lancet 2021, VIMC, Table 2): hepatitis B vaccination averted 640,000 deaths (95% CrI 190,000-1.5M) in 98 low- and middle-income countries in 2000-2019 and 1.6M (460,000-2.9M) in 2020-2030. Annual impact is still rising, so we assign 40-55% of the 2020-2030 figure to 2020-2025. Low: 190k + 0.40 x 460k = 374k, rounded down to 350k. High: 1.5M + 0.55 x 2.9M = 3.1M, plus up to 10% for Taiwan, South Korea, rich countries and 1982-1999 = 3.4M. Lifetime figures (Toor et al. 2021: 29M; WHO: 7M for Western Pacific children born 1990-2014) are not counted. Blood screening excluded. Share 0.2: Blumberg found the antigen, tied it to hepatitis and devised the vaccine concept with Millman; co-discoverers (including Harvey Alter), vaccine makers, yeast-vaccine inventors and delivery programmes were also essential.","laureate":"baruch-s-blumberg","laureateName":"Baruch S. Blumberg"},{"id":"hepb-vaccine-chronic-infections-prevented","outcomeId":"hepatitis-b-vaccine-screening","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Children spared lifelong hepatitis B infection by vaccination","scope":"direct","low":110000000,"high":260000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.2,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Lifetime benefit the deaths-to-2025 claim omits: chronic infection brings lifelong liver-cancer and cirrhosis risk. High: Nayagam et al. (s22) model that infant vaccination had prevented 210M new chronic infections by 2015; adding 2016-2025 births (1.365B, UN via OWID, s23) x 4 points = 55M gives ~265M, rounded down to 260M. Low, a simpler check: WHO (s9) says under-5 prevalence fell from ~5% before vaccination to just under 1% by 2019, 4 points. Cohorts born 1995-2014 (2.77B) at a gain rising linearly from 0 to 4 points (average 2) = 55M; 2015-2025 (1.51B) x 4 points = 60M; total 116M, rounded down to 110M. Counterfactual: no vaccine. Counts infections in vaccinated children, not transfusion infections averted by donor screening. Share 0.2, as on the deaths claim: Blumberg found the antigen and devised the vaccine with Millman; Alter (0.02), makers and programmes did the rest.","laureate":"baruch-s-blumberg","laureateName":"Baruch S. Blumberg"},{"id":"blumberg-hepb-transfusion-infections-prevented","outcomeId":"hepatitis-b-blood-screening","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Transfusion recipients spared hepatitis B by donor screening, 2008-2025","scope":"direct","low":1600000,"high":6200000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2008,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.2,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"2008-2025 only. WHO: 91.8M donations in 2008, 118.5M in 2018; linear between, flat after = 1.99B. Median HBsAg-reactive rates by income group 0.01/0.29/1.96/2.81%, weighted by 2018 donation shares 40/34/24/2% (WHO 2021) = 0.63%: 12.5M units kept out. Infections averted per unit: 0.15 (Allain, Ghana: recipients over 10, often already immune) to 0.5 (Gocke 1972, US: 52% of recipients of antigen-positive blood were infected). Low x 0.9: 11% of donations not screened to standard (WHO 2011). 12.5M x 0.9 x 0.15 = 1.7M, rounded down to 1.6M; 12.5M x 0.5 = 6.2M. Only susceptible recipients count, so no vaccinated child from the vaccine claim is counted. Rough: medians, unconfirmed reactives. Share 0.2 (Alter 0.05, Yalow 0.01): Blumberg found the antigen and tied it to hepatitis; Prince, test makers and blood services did the rest.","laureate":"baruch-s-blumberg","laureateName":"Baruch S. Blumberg"},{"id":"crisis-2008-output-protected","outcomeId":"financial-crisis-response-2008","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"US output protected by the 2008-09 financial rescue (Fed lending and QE, FDIC guarantees, TARP, stress tests)","scope":"ripple","low":7000000000000,"high":9100000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":2008,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.012,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Blinder & Zandi (2015, Moody's model) simulate 'No Financial Policy': no Fed lending or QE, FDIC debt guarantees, stress tests or TARP. Real GDP gaps vs actual (2009 $B): 19, 396, 778, 888, 920, 894, 769 in 2008-14, plus $312B in H1 2015: $4.98T. x1.416 (GDP deflator 88.56 in 2009, 125.43 in 2024) = $7.0T (low: the modeled window only). High: gap held at $592B for H2 2015, then fading linearly to zero by 2020 (+$1.48T): $6.46T x 1.416 = $9.1T. Effects abroad excluded; model estimates are contested. Their 'No Bank Bailout' run (no TARP capital or stress tests) gives ~61% of the gap, leaving ~39% to Fed lending, QE and FDIC guarantees. Share 0.012 = 0.03 of that Fed part: Friedman and Schwartz's Monetary History supplied the diagnosis Bernanke credited, but Schwartz, Bernanke, older doctrine and the officials who acted deserve most credit.","laureate":"milton-friedman","laureateName":"Milton Friedman"},{"id":"crisis-2008-jobs-kept","outcomeId":"financial-crisis-response-2008","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"US jobs kept at the 2012 peak by the 2008-09 financial rescue","scope":"ripple","low":4500000,"high":4900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2009,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.012,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Blinder & Zandi (2015, Moody's model, ss30), Table 9, 'No Financial Policy' (no Fed lending or QE, FDIC guarantees, stress tests or TARP; fiscal stimulus kept): payroll jobs lower by 2.1M (2009), 4.5M (2010), 4.8M (2011), 4.9M (2012), 4.7M (2013) and 4.0M (2014). Their 2010 forecast (ss16) gave 'almost 5 million'. High 4.9M, the 2012 peak. Low 4.5M, the 2010 gap, allowing for workers who hold two jobs. This counts extra people employed at one time, not everyone spared a spell of unemployment, so it is a floor on people helped. Same outcome and scenario as the output claim, different metric; model estimates are contested; effects abroad excluded. Share 0.012, as on his output claim: 0.03 of the ~39% Fed part; the Friedman-Schwartz diagnosis shaped the response, but Schwartz, Bernanke and officials deserve most credit.","laureate":"milton-friedman","laureateName":"Milton Friedman"},{"id":"eitc-people-lifted-from-poverty","outcomeId":"eitc-poverty-reduction","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Americans lifted above the poverty line by the Earned Income Tax Credit, 2013-2025","scope":"ripple","low":6500000,"high":21000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2013,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"CBPP, from Census SPM data: the EITC alone (not the child credit) lifted 6.2M people above the poverty line in 2013, 6.5M in 2015, 5.6M in 2018 and 4.4M in 2024 (2.3M of them children). Interpolating, and holding 2025 at 4.4M, gives ~70.5M person-years for 2013-25; earlier years are left out. Low 6.5M: the largest single year, a hard floor on distinct people. High 21M: 70.5M / 3.3 years each, our assumption from Dowd and Horowitz (61% of claimants use the credit 1-2 years, 20% more than 5); that spread allows an average as low as 2.4 years (29M), so 21M is cautious. Income effect only. Share 0.02: Moffitt (s26) traces the EITC to the negative-income-tax debate Friedman's 1962 proposal started (CRS confirms the NIT origin), but Senator Russell Long proposed it in 1972 as an alternative to a guaranteed income, it was enacted in 1975, and later lawmakers expanded it.","laureate":"milton-friedman","laureateName":"Milton Friedman"},{"id":"yalow-ch-newborn-screening","outcomeId":"congenital-hypothyroidism-newborn-screening","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Babies with congenital hypothyroidism found by newborn screening and treated early (1974-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":200000,"high":500000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1974,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Arrigoni et al. (2025): 39.1M babies/yr screened (29.6% of 132.1M births in 2023) and 29.3% in 2014; Ford & LaFranchi: about 71% of babies unscreened. UN births via OWID: 2014-2025 at ~29.5% of 1.65B = 0.49B screened. 1975-2013: coverage rising linearly from 0 (1974) to 29.3% = 0.79B (high) or half that, 0.40B (low). Total 0.88B-1.28B. Incidence 1 in 4,000 (low) to 1 in 2,500 (high), below the 1 in 1,714 seen with lower cutoffs, which add mild cases. Result 220,000-510,000, rounded to 200,000-500,000. Share 0.05: the first screens measured T4 by radioimmunoassay, but the outcome also needed Berson (co-inventor, equal credit), Ekins's competitive-binding thyroxine assay, Dussault and Laberge's program, dried-blood-spot cards, thyroid hormone treatment and later non-radioactive assays.","laureate":"rosalyn-yalow","laureateName":"Rosalyn Yalow"},{"id":"yalow-hepb-transfusion-infections-prevented","outcomeId":"hepatitis-b-blood-screening","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Transfusion recipients spared hepatitis B by donor screening, 2008-2025","scope":"ripple","low":1600000,"high":6200000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2008,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"2008-2025 only. WHO: 91.8M donations in 2008, 118.5M in 2018; linear between, flat after = 1.99B. Median HBsAg-reactive rates by income group 0.01/0.29/1.96/2.81%, weighted by 2018 donation shares 40/34/24/2% (WHO 2021) = 0.63%: 12.5M units kept out. Infections averted per unit: 0.15 (Allain, Ghana: recipients over 10, often already immune) to 0.5 (Gocke 1972, US: 52% of recipients of antigen-positive blood were infected). Low x 0.9: 11% of donations not screened to standard (WHO 2011). 12.5M x 0.9 x 0.15 = 1.7M, rounded down to 1.6M; 12.5M x 0.5 = 6.2M. Only susceptible recipients count, so no vaccinated child from the vaccine claim is counted. Rough: medians, unconfirmed reactives. Share 0.01 (Blumberg 0.2, Alter 0.05): gel tests missed carriers (s29); her lab's 1970 radioimmunoassay for the antigen became the US blood-bank method (s3); today's tests are later immunoassays.","laureate":"rosalyn-yalow","laureateName":"Rosalyn Yalow"},{"id":"nathans-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Berg, Kornberg, Lederberg, Jacob, Luria and Lwoff profiles: world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein drugs since Humulin (1982). 2013 antibody sales ~$75B were about half of biopharma, so non-antibody ~$75B (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originators $53.6B, biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + fall to $53.6B in 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + half of biosimilars = ~$2.0T. Nominal sales, not net benefit. Share 0.01 (~$15-20B): Nathans first showed type II restriction enzymes give specific, mappable DNA pieces (Roberts 2005), a basis of cloning; but Arber and Smith found the enzymes, Boyer's lab found EcoRI, and Berg (0.05), Kornberg (0.02), Cohen, Boyer and industry did the rest.","laureate":"daniel-nathans","laureateName":"Daniel Nathans"},{"id":"nathans-gm-crops-farm-income","outcomeId":"gm-crops-farm-income","domain":"food","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Extra farm income from genetically engineered crops, which all rely on recombinant DNA","scope":"ripple","low":440000000000,"high":490000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1996,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.003,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Outcome: extra net farm income from genetically engineered crops, planted commercially since 1996; every one carries genes spliced with recombinant DNA. Brookes (2022, GM Crops & Food) totals $261.3B for 1996-2020 in nominal dollars, $18.8B in 2020 alone. Most gains came after 2008, so to 2024 dollars (BLS CPI) x1.32-1.44 (2015 and 2010 price levels) = $346-376B. 2021-25: 5 yr x $18.8B, low unadjusted ($94B), high x1.21 ($114B). Total about $440-490B. Caveats: the study was funded by Bayer Crop Science, and it counts farm income net of seed costs, not consumer, health or environmental effects. Share 0.003: vectors are built with the restriction mapping Nathans pioneered, but Arber and Smith found the enzymes, Berg (0.01) and Cohen-Boyer made recombinant DNA, and plant transformation, trait genes and seed firms did the rest. ~$1.3-1.5B.","laureate":"daniel-nathans","laureateName":"Daniel Nathans"},{"id":"simon-auto-enrolment-extra-savers","outcomeId":"behavioral-economics-policy","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Extra workers saving for retirement because of automatic-enrolment defaults (UK and US)","scope":"ripple","low":17000000,"high":28000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2006,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole outcome as Kahneman's profile. UK: DWP found eligible employees in workplace pensions rose from 10.7M (2012) to 18.7M (2018), +8.0M (low); TPR counts 11.385M auto-enrolled by Dec 2025, less DWP's 9% opt-out rate = 10.4M (high). US: Vanguard cites >100M Americans with DC accounts; use 80-100M. Vanguard auto-enroll plans have 94% participation vs 64% voluntary (+30 points). Assume 40-60% of covered workers are in auto-enroll plans (61% of Vanguard plans use it): 80-100M x 0.4-0.6 x 0.30 = 9.6M-18M. Total ~17M-28M. Share 0.01, the bottom of the foundational-theory range: the 2017 Nobel background names Simon's bounded rationality as a predecessor idea underlying Thaler's work, but default effects were documented and turned into policy by later researchers (Kahneman and Tversky, Thaler, Madrian, Benartzi) and governments. Attributed: about 170,000-280,000 people.","laureate":"herbert-simon","laureateName":"Herbert Simon"},{"id":"lebanon-war-1982-deaths","outcomeId":"lebanon-war-1982","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"People killed in Lebanon in Israel's 1982 invasion, fighters and civilians, incl. Sabra and Shatila at the high end","scope":"direct","low":8600,"high":19885,"unit":"people","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Counts vary widely, so the range is wide. Low 8,600: independent estimates of about 2,400 PLO fighters and 5,000-8,000 civilians killed (military analyst Richard Gabriel) plus about 1,200 Syrian soldiers (Kenneth Pollack), taking the low civilian figure. High 19,885 = 19,085 killed according to Lebanese authorities + 800, the upper Israeli military intelligence estimate for Sabra and Shatila cited by the Kahan Commission. The An-Nahar count of 17,825 dead from 6 June to 25 August (Christian Science Monitor) falls inside the range. About 330 Israeli soldiers killed are excluded. Share 0.1: Begin's cabinet authorized the invasion and he led the government, but the army under Defense Minister Sharon pushed far beyond the zone the cabinet approved, the Phalangists carried out the massacre, and not every death was caused by Israeli forces.","laureate":"menachem-begin","laureateName":"Menachem Begin"},{"id":"king-david-hotel-bombing-deaths","outcomeId":"king-david-hotel-bombing","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"People killed in the Irgun's 1946 bombing of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem","scope":"direct","low":91,"high":91,"unit":"people","fromYear":1946,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.4,"method":"sourced","confidence":"high","reasoning":"The bombing of the British Mandate headquarters in the King David Hotel on 22 July 1946 killed 91 people, a toll that the Begin Heritage Center and independent accounts agree on. Begin, as Irgun commander, ordered the attack. The Haganah had first approved it and then withdrawn approval, Irgun operatives planned and carried it out, and whether the Irgun's telephone warnings were adequate is disputed. Share 0.4 credits Begin as the commander who ordered it. We make no numeric claim for Deir Yassin or other Irgun attacks, where the sources we used do not document his personal role or the toll as clearly.","laureate":"menachem-begin","laureateName":"Menachem Begin"},{"id":"benacerraf-organ-transplant-recipients","outcomeId":"organ-transplantation","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Solid-organ transplant recipients worldwide, aided by the science of transplant immunology (the MHC)","scope":"ripple","low":2600000,"high":4200000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1962,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from our Gertrude Elion profile. UNOS logged the 1 millionth US transplant in September 2022, with over 40,000 a year from 2021; about 3.3 more years at about 46,000 a year gives about 1.16 million by end-2025. The US did 48,935 of the world's 173,727 transplants in 2024 (28%); a 25-40% US share over time gives 2.9-4.6 million worldwide, minus about 10% for repeat transplants: 2.6-4.2 million recipients. Share 0.005 = 0.10 x 0.05: tissue-compatibility science gets about 10% of transplant success, alongside drugs, surgery and organ preservation. Within that, Dausset's HLA typing and Snell's H-2 genetics are the direct basis; Benacerraf's Ir-gene and alloreactivity work, which explained why T cells react so strongly to mismatched MHC, gets about 5%. He did not develop tissue typing, and his key work came after 1962.","laureate":"baruj-benacerraf","laureateName":"Baruj Benacerraf"},{"id":"recombinant-protein-medicines-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Outcome: world sales of recombinant protein medicines other than antibodies and COVID mRNA vaccines (own outcomes), from Humulin in 1982. Anchors: non-antibody sales ~$75B in 2013, since antibodies (~$75B) were about half of biopharma sales (Ecker 2015); originator non-antibody proteins $53.6B and biosimilars $11.1B in 2021 (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + linear fall to $53.6B over 2014-2021 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-2025 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp 1982-2013 ($1.2T), same later years, plus half of cumulative biosimilar sales (~$0.07T) = ~$2.0T. Nominal dollars; sales measure spending, not net benefit. Share 0.05: Berg made the first recombinant DNA and later mammalian SV40 vectors, but industry cloned with the Cohen-Boyer method; Lobban and Kaiser, restriction enzymes, Kornberg's enzymes, sequencing (Gilbert, Sanger) and product developers share the rest.","laureate":"paul-berg","laureateName":"Paul Berg"},{"id":"berg-gm-crops-farm-income","outcomeId":"gm-crops-farm-income","domain":"food","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Extra farm income from genetically engineered crops, which all rely on recombinant DNA","scope":"ripple","low":440000000000,"high":490000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1996,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Outcome: extra net farm income from genetically engineered crops, planted commercially since 1996; every one carries genes spliced with recombinant DNA. Brookes (2022, GM Crops & Food) totals $261.3B for 1996-2020 in nominal dollars, $18.8B in 2020 alone. Most gains came after 2008, so to 2024 dollars (BLS CPI) x1.32-1.44 (2015 and 2010 price levels) = $346-376B. 2021-25: 5 yr x $18.8B, low unadjusted ($94B), high x1.21 ($114B). Total about $440-490B. Caveats: the study was funded by Bayer Crop Science, and it counts farm income net of seed costs, not consumer, health or environmental effects. Share 0.01: Berg made the first recombinant DNA (1972), but Cohen-Boyer cloning, Agrobacterium plant transformation (Van Montagu, Chilton, Fraley; 2013 World Food Prize), trait genes and the seed industry did most of the work. Credited: ~$4.4-4.9B.","laureate":"paul-berg","laureateName":"Paul Berg"},{"id":"gilbert-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Berg, Kornberg and Lederberg profiles: world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein drugs since Humulin (1982). 2013 antibody sales ~$75B were about half of biopharma, so non-antibody ~$75B (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originators $53.6B, biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + fall to $53.6B in 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + half of biosimilars = ~$2.0T. Sales, not net benefit. Share 0.005 (~$7.5-10B): sequencing let engineers check constructs (his 1978 proinsulin clone was verified this way), and he co-founded and ran Biogen, maker of Avonex. But Sanger's method dominated sequencing, and Berg (0.05), Kornberg (0.02), Cohen, Boyer, Genentech and others did the rest.","laureate":"walter-gilbert","laureateName":"Walter Gilbert"},{"id":"schawlow-laser-sales","outcomeId":"laser-technology","domain":"technology","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative worldwide sales of lasers, devices the 1958 Schawlow-Townes paper helped make possible","scope":"direct","low":293000000000,"high":475000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1960,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Laser Focus World puts world laser sales at $3.22B in 1997, up 14% from 1996 (so $2.82B), then $8.8B (2000), $5.62B (2001), $13.07B (2017) and $13.76B (2018); Wikipedia gives $5.39B for 2004; MarketsandMarkets gives $20.0B (2024) and $21.82B (2025). Filling gaps with steady growth, 2000-2025 sums to about $287B nominal. Low: that plus the sourced 1996-97 years, not inflated, about $293B. High: 2000-2025 without the 2004 dip, in 2024 dollars via BLS CPI-U, about $390B; plus 1960-1999 modeled by running 1996 back at 14% a year and adding 1998 ($3.8B forecast) and 1999 ($4.6B assumed): $34B nominal, about $86B in 2024 dollars. Total about $475B. Sales exclude the far larger value lasers enable. Share 0.03: the 1958 Schawlow-Townes paper was decisive, but Townes, Gould, Prokhorov, Basov, Maiman, diode and fibre inventors and industry were essential.","laureate":"arthur-l-schawlow","laureateName":"Arthur L. Schawlow"},{"id":"vane-aspirin-secondary-prevention-deaths","outcomeId":"low-dose-aspirin-cardiovascular-prevention","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Vascular deaths prevented by long-term aspirin in people with heart disease or stroke (1980-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":1100000,"high":4600000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1980,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Users: GBD 2019 counts 197M people with IHD and 101M with stroke. Aspirin use among them was 40% in 51 countries (Yoo 2023, no China/India) and 11-64% by income group in PURE, so assume 50-90M users in 2019, rising linearly from zero (1985 low, 1980 high), flat to 2025: 50M x (17+6 yrs) = 1.15B; 90M x (19.5+6) = 2.3B person-years. Effect: ATT 2009 secondary-prevention trials cut vascular death by 0.29%/yr (2.9 per 1,000 person-years, bleeding deaths included); ATT notes other treatments roughly halve event rates, so use 1.0-2.0 per 1,000 person-years. Result: 1.15B x 1.0 = 1.15M; 2.3B x 2.0 = 4.6M. Check: 50k-180k/yr in 2019, near Elwood's 100k/yr possible. Share 0.03: clinical use grew on a separate track (earlier platelet studies, Elwood's 1974 trial); Smith and Willis, Samuelsson (thromboxane) and the trialists share credit.","laureate":"john-r-vane","laureateName":"John R. Vane"},{"id":"vane-aspirin-major-bleeding","outcomeId":"low-dose-aspirin-major-bleeding","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Major bleeds caused by long-term low-dose aspirin for heart disease or stroke (1980-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":770000,"high":10100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1980,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same 1.15-2.3B aspirin person-years as the benefit claim. Low rate: across 13 primary-prevention trials (1.05M participant-years, median age 62), aspirin gave 23.1 vs 16.4 major bleeds per 10,000 person-years, an excess of 0.67 per 1,000 (Zheng 2019); heart and stroke patients are older and bleed more, so this is a floor. High rate: in the Oxford Vascular Study, patients on aspirin-based treatment after a heart attack, stroke or TIA had 1.46% major bleeds a year in routine care (half aged 75+, no routine stomach protection); at Zheng's hazard ratio of 1.43, 30% of these, 4.4 per 1,000, are due to aspirin. ATT 2009's secondary-prevention trials recorded bleeds too incompletely to use. Result: 1.15B x 0.67 = 770,000; 2.3B x 4.4 = 10.1M. Fatal bleeds are already netted out of the benefit claim's vascular deaths. Share 0.03, matching the benefit claim.","laureate":"john-r-vane","laureateName":"John R. Vane"},{"id":"vane-rofecoxib-coronary-events","outcomeId":"rofecoxib-vioxx-heart-attacks","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Excess heart attacks and sudden cardiac deaths caused by rofecoxib (Vioxx) in the US, to its 2004 withdrawal","scope":"ripple","low":28000,"high":139000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1999,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"From FDA scientist David Graham's November 2004 Senate testimony: an FDA study report estimated nearly 28,000 excess heart attacks and sudden cardiac deaths caused by Vioxx in the US, which he called extremely conservative; applying risks from Merck's VIGOR and APPROVe trials gave 88,000-139,000, 30-40% probably fatal. US only, so the worldwide total is larger. Share 0.01: COX-2 was discovered by other groups and Merck made and marketed the drug. Vane's link is indirect: his 1971 finding underlies all such drugs, and his group's 1993 paper on COX-1/COX-2 selectivity predicted that selective inhibitors would have fewer side effects. The harm is thought to stem partly from suppressing prostacyclin, which his own team discovered.","laureate":"john-r-vane","laureateName":"John R. Vane"},{"id":"mab-medicines-patients-treated","outcomeId":"monoclonal-antibody-drugs","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People treated with monoclonal antibody medicines worldwide","scope":"direct","low":15000000,"high":60000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1986,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.15,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No global count exists. Floor: Roche reports rituximab treated over 2.7M people with blood cancers by 2017 and tocilizumab over 1M people by 2019, so 3.7M for two of 200+ marketed antibodies. Assuming those two account for at most a quarter of all patients ever treated gives a low of about 15M. High: rituximab's 2019 sales ($6.54B) were about 4.4% of a roughly $150B market (interpolated between $115.2B in 2018 and $217.3B in 2021); 2.7M / 0.044 = about 61M, rounded to 60M. These are people treated, not cured. Share 0.15: Milstein and Köhler co-invented the hybridoma method (about 0.15 each); the rest belongs to those who humanized antibodies, found drug targets and developed the medicines.","laureate":"cesar-milstein","laureateName":"César Milstein"},{"id":"mab-medicines-global-sales","outcomeId":"monoclonal-antibody-drugs","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of monoclonal antibody medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"direct","low":2000000000000,"high":2600000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1986,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.15,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Sourced annual sales: about $39B (2008) and $75B (2013) (Ecker 2015), $115.2B (2018, Lu 2020), $217.3B (2021, Walsh 2022). Linear interpolation gives about $1.39T for 2008-2021. Low: add 2022-2025 flat at $217B a year ($0.87T), ignore pre-2008 sales, then cut 10% for Fc-fusion drugs such as Enbrel that these totals include but that are not true antibodies: (1.39 + 0.87) x 0.9 = about $2.0T. High: add about $0.18T for 1998-2007 (a linear ramp up to 2008's $39B) and 8% yearly growth for 2022-2025 (Ecker's forecast rate, about $1.06T): about $2.6T. Nominal dollars, which understates the 2024-dollar value. Sales measure spending, not net benefit. Share 0.15, as for the patients claim.","laureate":"cesar-milstein","laureateName":"César Milstein"},{"id":"karle-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.0003,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total (the range used in the Bethe, Reines and Rotblat profiles; later cancer deaths excluded). Share 0.0003: in 1943-44 Karle was a new PhD chemist in Seaborg's plutonium group at Chicago, where by his own account he found a way to turn plutonium oxide into metal. Plutonium fueled only the Nagasaki bomb, roughly a third of the deaths (60,000-80,000 of 150,000-246,000). A junior role like Reines's (0.001) scaled by about one third gives roughly 0.0003. Tens of thousands of others built the bombs, and US leaders chose to use them. Result: 150,000 x 0.0003 = 45 to 246,000 x 0.0003 = about 74 deaths credited.","laureate":"jerome-karle","laureateName":"Jerome Karle"},{"id":"goldstein-statin-deaths-prevented","outcomeId":"statins-cholesterol","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Deaths prevented or postponed by statin therapy worldwide (1987-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":1700000,"high":4800000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Users: Blais et al. estimate 173M people on lipid-lowering drugs in 2018 (83 countries); per-capita use rose ~50% from 2008, so ~110M in 2008. Assume statins are 85%: ~95M (2008), ~147M (2018). Person-years: 1987-2008 ramp from zero = 0.7-1.0B; 2008-18 = 1.2B; 2018-25 = 1.0B (flat) to 1.2B (4%/yr growth). Total 2.9-3.4B. Effect: CTT's 21 statin-vs-control trials had ~12,400 deaths in ~620,000 person-years (~2%/yr) and 10% fewer deaths per ~1 mmol/L LDL cut, about 2 deaths averted per 1,000 person-years. Real-world use (lower risk, doses, adherence): 0.6-1.4. Result 1.76M-4.76M, rounded to 1.7M-4.8M. Check: Grabowski et al. put US deaths averted at ~40,000 in 2008 alone. Share 0.05, same for Brown (0.10 together): Endo found the first statin, Merck brought one to market, and trialists proved statins save lives.","laureate":"joseph-l-goldstein","laureateName":"Joseph L. Goldstein"},{"id":"goldstein-statin-diabetes","outcomeId":"statin-new-onset-diabetes","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Extra diabetes diagnoses caused by statin therapy worldwide (1987-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":2100000,"high":5100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same 2.9-3.4B statin person-years (1987-2025) as the benefit claim (Blais). CTT 2024 individual-patient meta-analysis (19 placebo trials, 123,940 people): in people without diabetes, low/moderate-intensity statins added 1.2 new diagnoses per 1,000 person-years (RR 1.10, placebo 1.2%/yr); high-intensity raised diagnoses 36%, or 4.3 per 1,000 at that 1.2%/yr baseline. MEPS 2008-19: 20% of US statin use was high-intensity (less abroad and earlier, so 5-20%) and 18% of users already had diabetes, so 82% of person-years are at risk. Low: rates cut by a third for real-world dose and adherence, 5% high-intensity: (0.95 x 0.8 + 0.05 x 2.9) x 2.9B x 0.82 = 2.1M. High: (0.8 x 1.2 + 0.2 x 4.3) x 3.4B x 0.82 = 5.1M. CTT: about 62% of new diagnoses were in people already in the top quarter of baseline blood sugar. Share 0.05, matching the benefit claim; Brown gets the same.","laureate":"joseph-l-goldstein","laureateName":"Joseph L. Goldstein"},{"id":"brown-statin-deaths-prevented","outcomeId":"statins-cholesterol","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Deaths prevented or postponed by statin therapy worldwide (1987-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":1700000,"high":4800000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Range matches co-laureate Goldstein's profile. Users: Blais 2021 estimates 173M on lipid drugs in 2018; per-capita use rose ~50% from 2008, so ~110M then. Assume 85% statins (93% of US users in 2011-12): ~95M (2008), ~147M (2018). Person-years: 1987-2008 ramp from zero 0.7-1.0B (18% of US adults 40+ already took statins in 2003-04); 2008-18 1.2B; 2018-25 1.0-1.2B (flat to +4%/yr). Total 2.9-3.4B. Effect: in CTT 2005 trials (90,056 people, ~5 yrs) deaths ran 1.8%/yr and fell ~13% at a mean 1.09 mmol/L LDL cut, about 2.5 averted per 1,000 person-years; real-world use (lower risk, doses, adherence) 0.6-1.4. Result: 2.9B x 0.6 = 1.74M; 3.4B x 1.4 = 4.76M; rounded 1.7-4.8M. Share 0.05 (0.10 with Goldstein): Endo found the first statin, Merck developed it, trialists proved it saves lives; Brown and Goldstein explained how it works and aided lovastatin's development.","laureate":"michael-s-brown","laureateName":"Michael S. Brown"},{"id":"brown-statin-diabetes","outcomeId":"statin-new-onset-diabetes","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Extra diabetes diagnoses caused by statin therapy worldwide (1987-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":2100000,"high":5100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1987,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same 2.9-3.4B statin person-years (1987-2025) as the benefit claim (Blais). CTT 2024 individual-patient meta-analysis (19 placebo trials, 123,940 people): in people without diabetes, low/moderate-intensity statins added 1.2 new diagnoses per 1,000 person-years (RR 1.10, placebo 1.2%/yr); high-intensity raised diagnoses 36%, or 4.3 per 1,000 at that 1.2%/yr baseline. MEPS 2008-19: 20% of US statin use was high-intensity (less abroad and earlier, so 5-20%) and 18% of users already had diabetes, so 82% of person-years are at risk. Low: rates cut by a third for real-world dose and adherence, 5% high-intensity: (0.95 x 0.8 + 0.05 x 2.9) x 2.9B x 0.82 = 2.1M. High: (0.8 x 1.2 + 0.2 x 4.3) x 3.4B x 0.82 = 5.1M. CTT: about 62% of new diagnoses were in people already in the top quarter of baseline blood sugar. Share 0.05, matching the benefit claim and Goldstein.","laureate":"michael-s-brown","laureateName":"Michael S. Brown"},{"id":"ushmm-visits","outcomeId":"holocaust-remembrance-education","domain":"education","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Visits to the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, which Wiesel's commission proposed and his council planned","scope":"direct","low":40000000,"high":51000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1993,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.15,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"The museum reports more than 50 million visitors since it opened in April 1993 (figures as of January 2026; 47 million by 2023). Visits are not unique people, so low assumes up to 20% repeat visits: 50M x 0.8 = 40M; high = 51M. Online users and readers of Night are not counted. Share 0.15: Wiesel chaired the 1978-79 presidential commission, wrote the report proposing the museum and chaired the founding council until 1986. But President Carter created the commission, Congress voted unanimously to set up the council, private donors paid nearly $200 million for construction, and later chairs, the founding director and staff built and ran the museum. Treating a museum visit as a benefit is itself a judgment.","laureate":"elie-wiesel","laureateName":"Elie Wiesel"},{"id":"cohen-egfr-tki-lung-cancer-patients","outcomeId":"egfr-targeted-cancer-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People with EGFR-mutant lung cancer treated with EGFR-blocking pills, 2003-2025","scope":"ripple","low":2300000,"high":4700000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2003,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Only lung cancer pills (gefitinib, US 2003, and successors); antibody drugs excluded, so a floor. 2022: about 2.5M lung cancers (WHO/IARC), 85% NSCLC. China 1,060,600 x 0.85 x 38.4% EGFR-mutant = 346,000; rest 1,439,400 x 0.85 x 14.1% (Europe) to 20% = 173,000-245,000; total 519,000-591,000 a year. Assumed 30% (low) or 50% (high) get a pill, since many are cured by surgery or never tested: 156,000-295,000 a year, reached by a linear ramp from 2004 to 2018 (low, 15 x annual) or 2016 (high, 16 x annual), then flat to 2025 = 2.3M-4.7M. Counts people treated, not lives saved. Share 0.05: Cohen found EGF, its receptor and its tyrosine kinase, the drugs' target; receptor cloning, the erbB link, the 2004 mutation finding and drug design were others' essential work. Credited: about 115,000-235,000.","laureate":"stanley-cohen","laureateName":"Stanley Cohen"},{"id":"elion-childhood-all-lives-saved","outcomeId":"childhood-leukemia-cure","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Children and teens cured of acute lymphoblastic leukemia by modern combination chemotherapy","scope":"direct","low":600000,"high":820000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1960,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.08,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Before 6-MP, childhood ALL was nearly always fatal (median survival 3-4 months). GBD 2021: under-20 ALL cases/deaths were 62,687/48,061 in 1990 and 53,485/23,991 in 2021, so yearly survivors rose from about 14,600 to 29,500. Average 22,000 x 32 years (1990-2021) = 706,000; plus 4 x 29,500 = 118,000 (2022-2025); minus 5% of cases who might survive without modern therapy (about 104,000) = about 720,000; minus 15% for later relapses = low 600,000. High skips the relapse cut and adds rich-country survivors from 1960-1989: US about 2,500 cases a year (assumed; 3,100 today) x 10 years x average survival of 14%, 50% and 70% in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s (60% by 1975) = 33,500, x3 for all rich countries = 100,000; 720,000 + 100,000 = 820,000. Share 0.08: 6-MP is a mainstay of modern regimens, but cures also needed other drugs, trial networks and supportive care; Hitchings shares 6-MP credit.","laureate":"gertrude-b-elion","laureateName":"Gertrude B. Elion"},{"id":"elion-organ-transplant-recipients","outcomeId":"organ-transplantation","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Solid-organ transplant recipients worldwide since immunosuppressive drugs made transplants workable","scope":"ripple","low":2600000,"high":4200000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1962,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.04,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"UNOS recorded the 1 millionth US organ transplant in September 2022, with more than 40,000 a year by 2021; GODT reports 48,935 US transplants in 2024. About 3.3 more years at roughly 46,000 a year gives about 1.16 million US transplants by end-2025. The US did 28% of the world's 173,727 transplants in 2024; assuming a 25-40% US share over time gives 2.9-4.6 million worldwide. Subtracting about 10% for repeat transplants gives 2.6-4.2 million recipients. Share 0.04: azathioprine with prednisone made unrelated-donor kidney transplants workable from 1962-63 and anchored immunosuppression until cyclosporine around 1980, but most transplants since rely on newer drugs, and success also depends on surgery, tissue matching and organ preservation. Elion shares azathioprine's credit with Hitchings and with Schwartz, Dameshek, Calne and Murray, who proved its use.","laureate":"gertrude-b-elion","laureateName":"Gertrude B. Elion"},{"id":"elion-acyclovir-hse-lives-saved","outcomeId":"acyclovir-herpes-encephalitis","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Deaths from herpes simplex encephalitis prevented by acyclovir in wealthier countries","scope":"direct","low":30000,"high":100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1984,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.2,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Herpes encephalitis strikes 2.2-4.3 people per million a year (Sweden, Iceland). The counterfactual is vidarabine, the prior standard drug, not no treatment: in the two head-to-head trials mortality was 28% on acyclovir vs 54% on vidarabine (Whitley 1986, US) and 19% vs 50% (Skoldenberg 1984, Sweden), a gain of 26-31 points. World Bank high-income population averaged 1.28 billion in 1985-2023. Low: 1.28B x 2.2 per million = 2,816 cases a year x 0.26 x 42 years (1984-2025) = about 30,700. High: 1.8B people with access (high-income plus an assumed 0.5B of the 2-3B in upper-middle-income countries) x 4.3 per million = 7,740 x 0.31 x 42 = about 100,800. Excludes neonatal herpes, shingles and other uses. Share 0.2: Howard Schaeffer designed and made acyclovir, Bauer and Collins tested it and Whitley and colleagues ran trials; Elion's group explained its selectivity and guided development.","laureate":"gertrude-b-elion","laureateName":"Gertrude B. Elion"},{"id":"varmus-cml-kinase-inhibitor-deaths-averted","outcomeId":"oncogenes-targeted-cancer-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Chronic myeloid leukemia deaths averted by imatinib and later BCR-ABL kinase inhibitors, 2001-2025","scope":"ripple","low":35000,"high":130000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2001,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"CML deaths averted by BCR-ABL inhibitors (imatinib approved 2001) only, a floor. SEER US age-adjusted CML death rate: 0.85-0.88 in 1996-98, 0.65 in 1999-2000, about 0.30 since 2007. The 1999 step down predates imatinib's approval and coincides with the switch to ICD-10 death coding, so 0.65 is the last comparable pre-imatinib level. Averted = sum of (counterfactual - observed) x US population, 2001-25. Low: 0.65 falling 2%/yr as in 1991-98 = 13,300 US; other high-income countries (3.28x US population) at half the US per-capita gain = 35,000. High: 0.65 held flat = 25,000 US; x4.28 with full gain abroad = 107,000; plus 25,000 in poorer countries (Max Foundation: 100,000+ patients; half CML, half of those saved) = 132,000, rounded to 130,000. Share 0.03: src work set the frame in which ABL was found; Bishop, Baltimore, Witte, Nowell, Rowley, Druker, Lydon, Sawyers were essential.","laureate":"harold-e-varmus","laureateName":"Harold E. Varmus"},{"id":"portfolio-theory-index-fund-fees-us","outcomeId":"portfolio-theory-index-investing","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Fees saved by US investors holding index funds instead of higher-cost actively managed funds","scope":"ripple","low":580000000000,"high":760000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1976,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.04,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"US fees only, nominal dollars. ICI: index mutual funds plus index ETFs held $1.9T (2010), $4.2T (2015), $9.9T (2020), $16.2T (2024) and $19.1T (2025); interpolating gives $112-120T of asset-years for 2011-25. Fee gap from ICI asset-weighted expense ratios, assuming 70-85% of index assets are equity: in 2025 active equity funds 0.64% vs index 0.05% (mutual funds) or 0.14% (ETFs); active bond 0.44% vs 0.05%/0.09%: a blended gap of 0.48-0.51 points, wider earlier (active equity 0.96% in 2010). Low: 0.48 points in every year x $112T = $0.54T, plus 2006-10 (index mutual funds $0.62T in 2005, all index $1.9T in 2010) = $0.58T. High: year-specific gaps averaging ~0.57 x $120T = $0.68T, plus ~$0.08T for 1976-2010 = $0.76T. Trading-cost savings excluded. Share 0.04: Sharpe's CAPM, built on his theory, implies uninformed investors should hold the market; Sharpe, Samuelson and Bogle did more.","laureate":"harry-m-markowitz","laureateName":"Harry M. Markowitz"},{"id":"fischer-cml-kinase-inhibitor-deaths-averted","outcomeId":"oncogenes-targeted-cancer-therapy","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Chronic myeloid leukemia deaths averted by imatinib and later BCR-ABL kinase inhibitors, 2001-2025","scope":"ripple","low":35000,"high":130000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2001,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.015,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from our Varmus profile. Counts only CML deaths averted by BCR-ABL inhibitors (imatinib approved 2001), a floor for kinase drugs. SEER US CML death rate: 0.87 per 100,000 in 1996-98, 0.65 in 1999-2000, 0.3 in 2020-24. Low: counterfactual 0.65 falling 2%/yr x US population (World Bank) = 13,300 US; other high-income countries at half the US per-capita gain = 35,000. High: 0.65 held flat (the last pre-imatinib level) = 25,000 US; x4.28 with full gain abroad = 107,000; plus 25,000 in poorer countries (Max Foundation) = 130,000. Cross-check: Blood 2013 put 235,000-250,000 patients on imatinib and yearly CML mortality at 2% vs 10-20% before. Share 0.015: Fischer and Krebs found protein kinases and reversible phosphorylation, the switch imatinib blocks (0.03 for the pair, split evenly); oncogene, BCR-ABL and drug work by others was essential.","laureate":"edmond-h-fischer","laureateName":"Edmond H. Fischer"},{"id":"eos-low-dose-skeletal-imaging","outcomeId":"eos-low-dose-orthopedic-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Patients imaged with EOS X-ray scanners that use Charpak's gas detector (excluding the newer EOSedge)","scope":"direct","low":1600000,"high":4500000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2008,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.2,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Counts only gas-detector EOS systems; EOSedge (85% of 2020 orders) uses a photon-counting detector and is excluded. Installed base: 308 (end 2018), 359 (2019), 402 (2020) per company reports; about 100 at end 2014 (359/1.29^5, reported 29% yearly growth); first installs 2008. Yearly averages give about 1,750 system-years for 2008-2020; add 300-370 gas-detector systems a year for 2021-2025 (1,500-1,850). Total 3,250-3,600. Company reports over 1M exams/yr on about 500 systems (about 2,000 each); at 1,500-2,500 per system-year: 3,250 x 1,500 = 4.9M to 3,600 x 2,500 = 9.0M exams. At 2-3 exams per patient: 4.9M/3 = 1.6M to 9.0M/2 = 4.5M people. Share 0.2: Charpak invented the detector and founded the company, but 3D reconstruction came from ENSAM and ETS Montreal and others built the system. Volumes are self-reported.","laureate":"georges-charpak","laureateName":"Georges Charpak"},{"id":"gilman-gpcr-drug-sales","outcomeId":"gpcr-drug-targets","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of drugs that act on G-protein-coupled receptors, 1990-2025 (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":4400000000000,"high":5200000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1990,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the Rodbell and Lefkowitz profiles so totals line up. Low: 27% market share (Hauser 2017) of IMS prescription sales of $127.7B (1990) and $282.5B (2000) (WHO 2004, Table 4.2): 11 yrs x $55.4B avg = $0.61T; 2001-10 = 10 x avg($76.3B, $178B) = $1.27T; 2011-15 = $0.89T (Hauser); 2016-25 flat at $160B = $1.60T; total $4.37T. High: 35% (Sriram & Insel) gives $0.79T + $1.38T + $0.89T + ($178B growing 3%/yr) $2.10T = $5.16T. Nominal. Share: these drugs act through receptors that switch on G-proteins, the transducers Gilman's lab identified and purified, but most GPCR drug classes were found before G-proteins were known. As in the Rodbell profile, we give the G-protein discovery 1% of the outcome, split equally with Rodbell: 0.005 ($22B-$26B). Sales measure spending, not benefit.","laureate":"alfred-g-gilman","laureateName":"Alfred G. Gilman"},{"id":"olah-methanol-economy-co2-to-methanol","outcomeId":"co2-to-methanol-recycling","domain":"environment","polarity":"benefit","metric":"emissions_avoided_tco2e","label":"CO2 emissions avoided by CRI's plants that turn captured CO2 into methanol, as Olah's methanol economy proposed","scope":"ripple","low":200000,"high":900000,"unit":"tco2e","fromYear":2012,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"CRI data: the Iceland plant (2012) grew from 1,300 to 4,000 t of methanol a year (full size recycles 5,500 t CO2/yr; about 1,800 t before its 2015 expansion). Shunli, China (Q3 2022) recycles 160,000 t/yr; Sailboat, China (Sept 2023) 150,000 t/yr. CO2 recycled to end-2025 at 50% (low) or 100% (high) of capacity: Iceland 0.5-1 x (4 x 1,800 + 10 x 5,500) = 31,000-62,000 t; Shunli 3.0-3.25 years, 240,000-520,000 t; Sailboat 2.0-2.3 years, 150,000-345,000 t. Total about 0.42-0.93 Mt. Low counts half as avoided (the Chinese plants use by-product hydrogen from fossil sources); high counts all (an SGS audit found an 80-90% CO2 cut versus fossil fuels in Iceland). Rounded: 0.2-0.9 Mt. Share 0.05: Olah framed and championed CO2-to-methanol recycling and the first plant bears his name, but CRI's engineering, catalysts and electrolysis did the work. Credited: about 10,000-45,000 t.","laureate":"george-a-olah","laureateName":"George A. Olah"},{"id":"spectrum-auction-public-revenue","outcomeId":"spectrum-auctions","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Public revenue raised by government spectrum auctions built on modern auction theory","scope":"ripple","low":260000000000,"high":450000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1994,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Myerson profile, so totals line up. Low: net winning bids in the FCC's 100 completed US spectrum auctions (1994-2022, excluding subsidy reverse auctions 901-904) sum to $259.1B, rounded to $260B; nominal dollars. High: the Nobel committee (2020) says the SMRA format raised over $200B worldwide vs over $120B for the FCC (1994-2014), so at least $80B abroad; $260B + $80B = $340B, plus other non-US sales and inflation to 2024 dollars, rounded to $450B. Revenue is a transfer from firms to taxpayers, not new wealth; the committee puts avoided tax distortions at $0.17-0.56 per dollar raised. Share 0.02: his Bayesian equilibrium is the concept Wilson and Milgrom used to analyze bidders with private information, but Vickrey, Coase, the auction designers and policymakers were also essential. Selten takes no share.","laureate":"john-c-harsanyi","laureateName":"John C. Harsanyi"},{"id":"rodbell-gpcr-drug-sales","outcomeId":"gpcr-drug-targets","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of drugs that act on G-protein-coupled receptors, 1990-2025 (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":4400000000000,"high":5200000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1990,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the Lefkowitz and Loewi profiles so totals line up. Low: 27% market share (Hauser 2017) of IMS prescription sales of $127.7B (1990) and $282.5B (2000) (WHO 2004, Table 4.2): 11 yrs x $55.4B avg = $0.61T; 2001-10 = 10 x avg($76.3B, $178B) = $1.27T; 2011-15 = $0.89T (Hauser); 2016-25 flat at $160B = $1.60T; total $4.37T. High: 35% (Sriram & Insel) gives $0.79T + $1.38T + $0.89T + ($178B growing 3%/yr) $2.10T = $5.16T. Nominal. Share: these drugs act by changing how a receptor switches on its G-protein, the GTP-driven transducer Rodbell proposed and demonstrated, but many GPCR drug classes were found before G-proteins were known. We give the G-protein discovery 1% of the outcome, split equally with co-laureate Gilman, who purified the protein: 0.005 ($22B-$26B). Sales measure spending, not benefit.","laureate":"martin-rodbell","laureateName":"Martin Rodbell"},{"id":"grapes-of-wrath-civilian-deaths","outcomeId":"operation-grapes-of-wrath-1996","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Lebanese civilians killed in Israel's 1996 Operation Grapes of Wrath, including more than 100 at Qana","scope":"direct","low":154,"high":154,"unit":"people","fromYear":1996,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.2,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Human Rights Watch, which investigated in Lebanon and Israel in 1996, reports some 154 Lebanese civilians killed and 351 injured in the 17-day operation (11-27 April 1996), more than 100 of them in the artillery barrage on the UN base at Qana. We use 154 as both low and high and leave out fighters, soldiers and the injured. Share 0.2: Peres, as both prime minister and defense minister, launched the operation and its strategy of pressing civilians to leave the south, but army commanders chose specific targets and fire, and HRW found that Lebanese guerrillas, mainly Hezbollah, also bear responsibility for the Qana deaths by firing from near the base. We make no numeric claim for the 1985 Tunis airstrike, whose reported tolls vary widely.","laureate":"shimon-peres","laureateName":"Shimon Peres"},{"id":"reines-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.001,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total (the same range as the Bethe, Feynman, Bloch and Rotblat profiles; later cancer deaths excluded). Scope is direct because his own wartime work went into the project. Share 0.001: he arrived in 1944 as a new PhD and junior staff member in Feynman's T-4 group (Feynman's share: 0.005), whose main focus was diffusion theory for critical-mass calculations; he became a group leader about a year later (June 1946 per AHF). This matches Bloch and Rotblat (0.001) and is half of Rabi's 0.002. Thousands of others built the bombs, and US leaders chose to use them. His postwar test work (Operation Greenhouse) killed no one in war and is left unquantified. Result: 150,000 x 0.001 = 150 to 246,000 x 0.001 = 246 deaths credited.","laureate":"frederick-reines","laureateName":"Frederick Reines"},{"id":"atomic-bombings-1945-early-bomb-work","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths within 2-4 months of the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki","scope":"ripple","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.001,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within 2-4 months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so low = 150,000 and high = 246,000. Later radiation cancers and test fallout are excluded to stay conservative. Share 0.001: in 1939 Rotblat saw that a fast chain reaction would explode, and from late 1939 his Liverpool measurements on fast neutrons and uranium-235 helped show a bomb was feasible, feeding the 1941 MAUD Report that helped push the US program. At Los Alamos in 1944 he measured fission gamma rays, then left before the bombs were built; he judged his impact small. Thousands of scientists and workers built the bombs, others contributed far more, US leaders chose to use them, and others would soon have made his measurements. Result: about 150-250 deaths credited.","laureate":"joseph-rotblat","laureateName":"Joseph Rotblat"},{"id":"derivatives-use-us-gdp-gain","outcomeId":"options-pricing-derivatives","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Extra US economic output from banks' and firms' use of derivatives to manage risk","scope":"ripple","low":1400000000000,"high":4900000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1973,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Milken Institute (2014, CME Group-funded): derivatives use by US banks and firms raised real GDP ~$3.7B a quarter in 2003-12 (models range $1.4-8.1B), leaving 2012 GDP 1.1% ($149.5B, chained 2005 $) higher: a yearly level, not a total. 2003-12 ramp: ~$0.75T x 1.538 (GDP deflator 81.56 in 2005, 125.43 in 2024) = $1.15T. 2013-25: OCC bank notionals were $186.5-218.7T in late 2024 vs $223T in 2012, when it tied declines to trade compression, so we assume use and the gain persisted: 2012 gain ($230B in 2024 $) x 0.84 x 13 yr = $2.5T; central $3.6T. High: 1.1% of each year's real GDP (BEA) in 2024 $ = $3.7T; total ~$4.9T (Milken's $8.1B top not used). Low: central x 0.38 (their $1.4B main regression estimate) = $1.4T. Pre-2003, non-US gains omitted; crisis losses not netted. Share 0.03: option pricing gets ~10% (swaps, futures, forwards use it little), split among Scholes, Merton and Black.","laureate":"myron-scholes","laureateName":"Myron Scholes"},{"id":"derivatives-use-us-gdp-gain","outcomeId":"options-pricing-derivatives","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Extra US economic output from banks' and firms' use of derivatives to manage risk","scope":"ripple","low":1400000000000,"high":4900000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1973,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Milken Institute (2014, CME Group-funded): derivatives use by US banks and firms raised real GDP ~$3.7B a quarter in 2003-12 (models range $1.4-8.1B), leaving 2012 GDP 1.1% ($149.5B, chained 2005 $) higher: a yearly level, not a total. 2003-12 ramp: ~$0.75T x 1.538 (GDP deflator 81.56 in 2005, 125.43 in 2024) = $1.15T. 2013-25: OCC bank notionals were $186.5-218.7T in late 2024 vs $223T in 2012, when it tied declines to trade compression, so we assume use and the gain persisted: 2012 gain ($230B in 2024 $) x 0.84 x 13 yr = $2.5T; central $3.6T. High: 1.1% of each year's real GDP (BEA) in 2024 $ = $3.7T; total ~$4.9T (Milken's $8.1B top not used). Low: central x 0.38 (their $1.4B main regression estimate) = $1.4T. Pre-2003, non-US gains omitted; crisis losses not netted. Share 0.03: option pricing gets ~10% (swaps, futures, forwards use it little), split among Merton, Scholes and Black.","laureate":"robert-c-merton","laureateName":"Robert C. Merton"},{"id":"furchgott-pde5-inhibitor-ed-patients","outcomeId":"pde5-inhibitors-erectile-dysfunction","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Men treated with sildenafil and other PDE5-inhibitor drugs for erectile dysfunction","scope":"ripple","low":40000000,"high":100000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1998,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low: Sandner et al. (2007) report more than 40 million men worldwide treated with PDE5 inhibitors since 1998; a cumulative count cannot fall, so 40 million is a floor for 2025. High: sildenafil alone reached more than 23 million men in its first 7 years, about 3.3 million new men a year. If new users of all PDE5 inhibitors kept arriving at about that rate from 2008 to 2025 (18 x 3.3 million = about 59 million), the total is about 100 million. Illicit users are not counted. Share 0.03: the drugs work by prolonging the nitric oxide-cGMP signal. Furchgott's EDRF discovery is one root of that knowledge, alongside Murad's nitric oxide-cGMP work, Ignarro's identification work and Pfizer's chemists and clinicians, who made sildenafil in 1989 and found its effect on erections while testing it for angina.","laureate":"robert-f-furchgott","laureateName":"Robert F. Furchgott"},{"id":"greengard-caplyta-sales","outcomeId":"lumateperone-caplyta","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative net sales of Caplyta (lumateperone), 2020-2025 (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":2196000000,"high":2395000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Yearly net product sales from company filings: 2020 $22.5M, 2021 $81.7M, 2022 $249.1M, 2023 $462.2M, 2024 $680.5M (Intra-Cellular); J&J reported $700M from 2 April to 28 December 2025. Low: sum = $2,196M, leaving out Jan-Mar 2025 sales that no opened source reports. High: adds Q1 2025 assumed equal to Q4 2024's $199.2M = $2,395M. Nominal dollars, not inflation-adjusted; because most sales fell in 2023-2025, converting to 2024 dollars would change the total by only about 1-2 percent. Share 0.05: Greengard co-founded Intra-Cellular and its approach of targeting signaling inside nerve cells grew from his work, but the compound was licensed from Bristol Myers Squibb in 2005 (s10) and then developed, tested and sold by company teams (s11); he is not an author on the lumateperone papers. Credit: about $110M-$120M. Sales measure spending, not health gained.","laureate":"paul-greengard","laureateName":"Paul Greengard"},{"id":"alferov-heterostructure-device-sales","outcomeId":"quantum-mechanics-electronics","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Heterostructure lasers, LEDs and fast transistors within cumulative world semiconductor sales","scope":"direct","low":14200000000000,"high":16000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1955,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.003,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Bohr, Einstein and Bloch profiles: WSTS billings for 1986-2025 sum to about $10.28T nominal, about $14.2T in 2024 dollars via the Minneapolis Fed CPI (low). High ($16T): $14.2T + rough, unsourced allowances of ~$0.5T for pre-1986 chip sales and ~$1T for lasers and other quantum devices outside WSTS = ~$15.7T, rounded up. Share: WSTS puts optoelectronics at $43.0B of $795.6B in 2025 (5.4%), about 6.5% in 2024, but that includes silicon image sensors. We assume heterostructure devices (laser diodes, LEDs, fast heterojunction transistors) are about 3-6% of sales. Alferov's part is 5-8%, split with Kroemer, Hayashi, Panish, Holonyak, blue-LED inventors and crystal growers. 0.045 x 0.065 = about 0.003. Sales are only a proxy for value.","laureate":"zhores-alferov","laureateName":"Zhores Alferov"},{"id":"auto-enrolment-extra-savers","outcomeId":"behavioral-economics-policy","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Extra workers saving for retirement because of automatic-enrolment defaults (UK and US)","scope":"ripple","low":17000000,"high":28000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2006,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Pension defaults only, UK and US, so a floor. UK: DWP found eligible employees in workplace pensions rose from 10.7M (2012) to 18.7M (2018), +8.0M (low); TPR counts 11.385M auto-enrolled by Dec 2025, less ~9% opt-outs = 10.4M (high). US: Vanguard cites >100M Americans with DC accounts; we use 80-100M to allow for people with several accounts. Vanguard auto-enroll plans have 94% participation vs 64% without (+30 points; cross-sectional, not a clean causal estimate). Assume 40-60% of covered workers are in auto-enroll plans (61% of Vanguard plans, 78% of large ones, use it): 80-100M x 0.4-0.6 x 0.30 = 9.6M-18M. Total ~17M-28M; other countries excluded. Share 0.05: Kahneman's half of the Kahneman-Tversky foundation (loss aversion, reference dependence); Thaler, Benartzi, Madrian, Sunstein and policymakers built the policies (foundational range 0.01-0.1).","laureate":"daniel-kahneman","laureateName":"Daniel Kahneman"},{"id":"brenner-mrna-vaccines-lives","outcomeId":"mrna-vaccines","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Deaths averted by mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, credited to the discovery of messenger RNA and the triplet code","scope":"ripple","low":870000,"high":8900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the shared mrna-vaccines outcome. All COVID-19 vaccines: 2.5M deaths averted to Oct 2024 (Ioannidis 2025; 1 per 5,400 doses, so ~13.5B doses) to 19.8M in year one (Watson 2022, excess deaths). mRNA doses: Pfizer-BioNTech 4.3B by Mar 2023 + Moderna ~0.81B in 2021 = ~5.1B (~38%). Low 2.5M x 35% = 0.87M; high 19.8M x 45% = 8.9M. Share 0.005, same as Jacob: Brenner co-authored the 1961 proof of messenger RNA with Jacob and Meselson (Gros's team found it in parallel; Cobb 2015) and the 1961 triplet-code paper; the share covers both. Nirenberg (code, 0.005), Kariko and Weissman (modified bases), lipid delivery and industry did the rest. His slice: 4,350-44,500 lives.","laureate":"sydney-brenner","laureateName":"Sydney Brenner"},{"id":"brenner-mrna-vaccine-myocarditis","outcomeId":"mrna-vaccine-myocarditis","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Myocarditis cases linked to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, credited to the discovery of messenger RNA","scope":"ripple","low":20000,"high":70000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Range reused from the shared mrna-vaccine-myocarditis outcome. Oster et al. (2022): 1,626 confirmed cases after 354.1M US mRNA doses = 0.46 per 100,000 doses (passive reporting, likely an undercount). Mevorach et al. (2021), Israeli active surveillance: 136 definite or probable cases among ~5.1M two-dose recipients (at least 10.2M doses) = ~1.3 per 100,000 doses. Applied to ~5.1B mRNA doses (Pfizer-BioNTech 4.3B + Moderna 0.81B): 23,000, rounded down to 20,000, to 66,000, rounded up to 70,000. In Israel 95% of cases were mild; one was fatal. Share 0.005, matching the benefit claim: about 100-350 cases.","laureate":"sydney-brenner","laureateName":"Sydney Brenner"},{"id":"ginzburg-mri-people-benefited","outcomeId":"nmr-mri-imaging","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People who have benefited from MRI examinations worldwide since the early 1980s","scope":"ripple","low":300000000,"high":1100000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1981,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.002,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Rabi, Bloch and Stern profiles. Nobel Assembly: clinical MRI began in the early 1980s, with >60M exams in 2002; GE HealthCare: >95M scans a year. Summing gives about 2.6B (low) to 2.9B (high) exams through 2025. With 20-50% of imaging judged low-value and 2-4 scans per person: 2.6B x 0.5 / 4 = 0.3B; 2.9B x 0.8 / 2 = 1.1B. Share 0.002: MRI's strong magnets are type-II superconductors (NbTi), described by Ginzburg-Landau theory as extended by Abrikosov. But the wire was found by experiment, low-field MRI can use other magnets, and NMR physics, imaging methods and engineering carry most credit. Landau's profile makes no MRI claim. Credited: about 0.6M-2.2M people.","laureate":"vitaly-l-ginzburg","laureateName":"Vitaly L. Ginzburg"},{"id":"ciechanover-proteasome-inhibitor-patients","outcomeId":"ubiquitin-proteasome-drugs","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Patients treated with the proteasome-blocking cancer drug bortezomib worldwide (2003-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":1200000,"high":1900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2003,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Hershko and Rose profiles. Company counts: >300,000 bortezomib patients by Sept 2012 and >550,000 by Oct 2014. For Nov 2014-2025 (~11 yr) assume 60,000-120,000 new patients a year, about 30-60% of the ~188,000-196,000 new myeloma cases a year worldwide (GLOBOCAN). Low: 550k + 11 x 60k = 1.21M; high: 550k + 11 x 120k = 1.87M; rounded 1.2M-1.9M. Carfilzomib (~200,000 by 2021) is left out, since most of its users had bortezomib first. 'Benefited' here means treated: in VISTA, bortezomib cut death risk 31% (median survival 56 vs 43 months), but not every patient responds. Share 0.05, same for Hershko and Rose (0.15 together): the drug targets the proteasome, which others characterized, and companies and trialists developed it. Credited: about 60,000-95,000.","laureate":"aaron-ciechanover","laureateName":"Aaron Ciechanover"},{"id":"ciechanover-bortezomib-neuropathy","outcomeId":"proteasome-inhibitor-severe-neuropathy","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Patients with severe (grade 3 or worse) nerve damage from bortezomib worldwide (2003-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":63000,"high":160000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2003,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Shared outcome; same range for Hershko, Ciechanover and Rose. Base: the 1.2M-1.9M bortezomib patients of the benefit claim; over 400,000 had been treated by 2012 (Goldberg), mostly by vein twice weekly. Grade 3+ neuropathy on that schedule: 9% in the phase 3 APEX trial with a dose-modification guideline (Richardson 2009), 13% in phase 2 trials without one (Richardson 2006), 16% by vein in Moreau 2011 and 15.6% pooled over four randomised trials (Liu 2019), so 9-16%. Later patients mostly get it under the skin: 3.4% pooled (Liu 2019); Hu 2017's risk ratio of 0.4 x 16% = 6.4%, near Moreau's 6%, so 3.4-6.4%. Low: 400k x 9% + 0.8M x 3.4% = 63,000; high: 400k x 16% + 1.5M x 6.4% = 160,000. Most severe cases (64-71%) improved or resolved after dose cuts or stopping, so these are serious episodes, not all permanent. Share 0.05 each, matching the benefit claim: about 3,150-8,000 credited.","laureate":"aaron-ciechanover","laureateName":"Aaron Ciechanover"},{"id":"hershko-proteasome-inhibitor-patients","outcomeId":"ubiquitin-proteasome-drugs","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Patients treated with proteasome-inhibitor drugs, mostly for multiple myeloma (2003-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":1200000,"high":1900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2003,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Bortezomib (US approval 2003) had treated >85,000 patients by Feb 2008, >450,000 by Dec 2013 and >550,000 by Oct 2014 (company figures): ~63,000/yr in 2008-13, ~120,000/yr in 2014. For Nov 2014-2025 (~11 yr) we assume 60,000-120,000 new patients/yr, about 30-60% of the ~196,000 new myeloma cases a year worldwide (GLOBOCAN 2024). Low: 550k + 11 x 60k = 1.21M; high: 550k + 11 x 120k = 1.87M; rounded 1.2M-1.9M. Carfilzomib (~200,000 patients by 2021) is not added, since most users had already had bortezomib. 'Benefited' means treated; not all respond. Share 0.05: the proteasome was found by others, bortezomib was invented at ProScript and proven by clinicians, and Goldberg credits the whole protein-degradation field. The three 2004 laureates get 0.15 together, 0.05 each.","laureate":"avram-hershko","laureateName":"Avram Hershko"},{"id":"hershko-bortezomib-severe-neuropathy","outcomeId":"proteasome-inhibitor-severe-neuropathy","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Patients with severe (grade 3+) nerve damage from bortezomib (2003-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":63000,"high":160000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2003,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Shared outcome; same range for Hershko, Ciechanover and Rose. Base: the 1.2M-1.9M bortezomib patients of the benefit claim; over 400,000 had been treated by 2012 (Goldberg), mostly by vein twice weekly. Grade 3+ neuropathy on that schedule: 9% in the phase 3 APEX trial with a dose-modification guideline (Richardson 2009), 13% in phase 2 trials without one (Richardson 2006), 16% by vein in Moreau 2011 and 15.6% pooled over four randomised trials (Liu 2019), so 9-16%. Later patients mostly get it under the skin: 3.4% pooled (Liu 2019); Hu 2017's risk ratio of 0.4 x 16% = 6.4%, near Moreau's 6%, so 3.4-6.4%. Low: 400k x 9% + 0.8M x 3.4% = 63,000; high: 400k x 16% + 1.5M x 6.4% = 160,000. Most severe cases (64-71%) improved or resolved after dose cuts or stopping, so these are serious episodes, not all permanent. Share 0.05 each, matching the benefit claim: about 3,150-8,000 credited.","laureate":"avram-hershko","laureateName":"Avram Hershko"},{"id":"rose-proteasome-inhibitor-patients","outcomeId":"ubiquitin-proteasome-drugs","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Patients treated with proteasome-inhibitor drugs, mostly for multiple myeloma (2003-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":1200000,"high":1900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2003,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Bortezomib got US approval in 2003 (Kane). It had been given to >400,000 patients by 2012 (Goldberg) and >550,000 by Oct 2014 (Takeda). For Nov 2014-2025 (~11 yr) we assume 60,000-120,000 new patients a year, about 30-60% of the ~196,000 new myeloma cases a year worldwide (GLOBOCAN 2024). Low: 550k + 11 x 60k = 1.21M; high: 550k + 11 x 120k = 1.87M; rounded 1.2M-1.9M, the same range as Hershko's profile. Carfilzomib users are not added, since most had bortezomib first. 'Benefited' means treated; not all respond and few are cured. Share 0.05: the proteasome was characterized by others, and the drug was invented and proven by company scientists and clinicians. The three 2004 laureates get 0.05 each, 0.15 together.","laureate":"irwin-rose","laureateName":"Irwin Rose"},{"id":"rose-bortezomib-severe-neuropathy","outcomeId":"proteasome-inhibitor-severe-neuropathy","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Patients with severe (grade 3+) nerve damage from bortezomib (2003-2025)","scope":"ripple","low":63000,"high":160000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2003,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Shared outcome; same range for Hershko, Ciechanover and Rose. Base: the 1.2M-1.9M bortezomib patients of the benefit claim; over 400,000 had been treated by 2012 (Goldberg), mostly by vein twice weekly. Grade 3+ neuropathy on that schedule: 9% in the phase 3 APEX trial with a dose-modification guideline (Richardson 2009), 13% in phase 2 trials without one (Richardson 2006), 16% by vein in Moreau 2011 and 15.6% pooled over four randomised trials (Liu 2019), so 9-16%. Later patients mostly get it under the skin: 3.4% pooled (Liu 2019); Hu 2017's risk ratio of 0.4 x 16% = 6.4%, near Moreau's 6%, so 3.4-6.4%. Low: 400k x 9% + 0.8M x 3.4% = 63,000; high: 400k x 16% + 1.5M x 6.4% = 160,000. Most severe cases (64-71%) improved or resolved after dose cuts or stopping, so these are serious episodes, not all permanent. Share 0.05 each, matching the benefit claim: about 3,150-8,000 credited.","laureate":"irwin-rose","laureateName":"Irwin Rose"},{"id":"recombinant-protein-medicines-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Berg, Kornberg, Nathans and Lederberg profiles: world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein drugs since 1982. 2013 antibody sales ~$75B were about half of biopharma (Ecker 2015); 2021 non-antibody originators $53.6B, biosimilars $11.1B (Walsh 2022). Low: quadratic ramp to $75B over 1982-2013 ($0.81T) + 2014-21 ($0.50T) + flat 2022-25 ($0.21T) = ~$1.5T. High: linear ramp ($1.2T) + same later years + half of biosimilars = ~$2.0T. Nominal sales. Share 0.01 (~$15-20B, about 2% of the mammalian-made part; microbe-made insulin and growth hormone owe nothing to the method): cotransformation let firms make proteins in mammalian cells (67% of cell-made products approved 2018-22, Walsh) and earned $790M in royalties (Milbank). But Wigler conceived it, Silverstein co-invented it, and cell lines and manufacturing were others' work.","laureate":"richard-axel","laureateName":"Richard Axel"},{"id":"antibody-medicines-sales-mammalian-production","outcomeId":"monoclonal-antibody-drugs","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of monoclonal antibody medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":2000000000000,"high":2600000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1986,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.003,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Milstein profile: cumulative world antibody-drug sales since 1986 of about $2.0-2.6T, built from sourced annual sales of ~$39B (2008) and ~$75B (2013) (Ecker 2015) and $217.3B (2021) (Walsh 2022); that profile shows the arithmetic. Nominal sales, not net benefit. Share 0.003 (~$6-8B): antibodies are mostly made in mammalian cells, with CHO cells used for 89% of mammalian-made products approved 2018-22 (Walsh), and Humira, Rituxan and Avastin are among drugs listed as made with the cotransformation method (Milbank). But the hybridoma method (Milstein and Kohler, 0.15 each), humanization, drug targets and development matter far more, and Wigler and Silverstein co-invented the method.","laureate":"richard-axel","laureateName":"Richard Axel"},{"id":"glauber-hiroshima-nagasaki-deaths","outcomeId":"nuclear-weapons","domain":"peace","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Deaths from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within two to four months","scope":"direct","low":150000,"high":246000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1945,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.0005,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"RERF estimates acute deaths within two to four months at 90,000-166,000 in Hiroshima and 60,000-80,000 in Nagasaki, so 150,000-246,000 in total. This is the same range used in the Feynman, Reines, Bethe and Aage Bohr profiles, and it excludes later cancer deaths. Scope is direct because his own calculations went into the weapon. Share 0.0005: from 1944 to 1946 Glauber was an 18-year-old undergraduate in the Theoretical Division, working on neutron diffusion and critical-mass problems and writing three secret reports. That is a role like Reines's in the same diffusion work (0.001), but more junior, so we halve it, which matches Aage Bohr. Thousands of others built the bombs, and US leaders chose to use them. Result: 150,000 x 0.0005 = 75 to 246,000 x 0.0005 = 123 deaths credited.","laureate":"roy-j-glauber","laureateName":"Roy J. Glauber"},{"id":"rnai-medicine-patients","outcomeId":"rnai-therapeutics","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Patients treated with approved RNAi (siRNA) medicines, 2018-2025","scope":"ripple","low":400000,"high":550000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2018,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"sourced","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Alnylam's 2025 annual report says its six approved RNAi medicines (Onpattro, Amvuttra, Givlaari, Oxlumo, and partner drugs Leqvio and Qfitlia) reached about 500,000 patients by end-2025. Its Q4 2023 report counted over 5,000 patients on its own four drugs, so most of the total is inclisiran (Leqvio). Low = 500,000 x 0.8 = 400,000, discounting a rounded company figure. High = 500,000 x 1.1 = 550,000, adding a margin for non-Alnylam siRNA drugs. Share: Fire and Mello co-discovered the mechanism, but siRNA in human cells (Tuschl, 2001), chemical stabilisation and liver delivery were also essential. Because this is a ripple outcome that also needed twenty years of delivery and chemistry work by others, Fire and Mello get 0.1 each and 0.8 goes to later contributors. Fire's credited share: 40,000-55,000 people.","laureate":"andrew-z-fire","laureateName":"Andrew Z. Fire"},{"id":"revusiran-excess-deaths","outcomeId":"revusiran-trial-deaths","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"deaths_caused","label":"Possible excess deaths in the stopped ENDEAVOUR trial of the RNAi drug revusiran","scope":"ripple","low":0,"high":14,"unit":"people","fromYear":2016,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"In ENDEAVOUR, 18 of 140 revusiran patients died on treatment versus 2 of 66 (3.0%) on placebo. At the placebo rate, about 140 x 0.030 = 4.2 deaths would be expected, so the excess is 18 - 4.2 = 13.8, rounded to 14 (high). Investigators found no causal mechanism, and patients who died were older with more advanced heart failure, so the true drug-caused figure may be zero (low). Same 0.1 share as the benefit claim, for consistency: Fire's credited share is 0-1.4 deaths.","laureate":"andrew-z-fire","laureateName":"Andrew Z. Fire"},{"id":"us-spectrum-auction-revenue","outcomeId":"spectrum-auctions","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Public revenue raised by government spectrum auctions, 1994-2025 (a proxy for auction theory's reach)","scope":"ripple","low":260000000000,"high":450000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1994,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole-outcome range as the Milgrom, Myerson, Harsanyi and Hurwicz profiles. Low: net winning bids in the FCC's 100 completed US spectrum auctions (1994-2022) sum to $259.1B nominal, rounded to $260B; bids refunded after the NextWave litigation (Auction 35, $16.9B) or paid to broadcasters (2016-17 incentive auction) are more than offset by not converting to 2024 dollars (CPI conversion alone gives ~$362B). High: the Nobel committee (2020) says SMRA raised over $200B worldwide vs over $120B for the FCC in 1994-2014, so at least $80B abroad; $260B + $80B = $340B, plus other non-US sales and inflation, rounded to $450B. Revenue is a transfer used as a proxy. Share 0.005: Milgrom, Wilson and McAfee designed the formats, Congress chose auctions, and Vickrey and others built auction theory; Maskin's auction papers with Riley and on efficient auctions are a small part.","laureate":"eric-s-maskin","laureateName":"Eric S. Maskin"},{"id":"spectrum-auction-revenue","outcomeId":"spectrum-auctions","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Public revenue raised by government spectrum auctions worldwide","scope":"ripple","low":260000000000,"high":450000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1994,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same whole outcome as the Milgrom, Myerson and Harsanyi profiles. Low: net winning bids in the FCC's 100 completed US spectrum auctions (1994-2022) sum to $259.1B nominal, rounded to $260B (includes C-band Auction 107, $81.1B). High: the Nobel committee (2020) says the SMRA format raised over $200B worldwide vs over $120B at the FCC in 1994-2014, so at least $80B abroad; $260B + $80B = $340B, plus other non-US sales and conversion to 2024 dollars, rounded to $450B. Revenue is a transfer, not net welfare. Share 0.01: Hurwicz's mechanism concept and incentive compatibility are foundational, but Vickrey, Wilson, Milgrom, McAfee and Myerson built the auction theory and formats, and regulators ran the auctions (lowest end of 0.01-0.1).","laureate":"leonid-hurwicz","laureateName":"Leonid Hurwicz"},{"id":"spectrum-auction-public-revenue","outcomeId":"spectrum-auctions","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Public revenue raised by government spectrum auctions built on modern auction theory","scope":"ripple","low":260000000000,"high":450000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1994,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low: net winning bids in the FCC table of 100 completed US spectrum auctions (1994-2022) sum to $259.1B, rounded to $260B, in nominal dollars; some bids went unpaid or to private parties (about $10B to broadcasters in 2017), roughly offset by omitting inflation. High: the Nobel committee (2020) says SMRA raised over $200B worldwide vs over $120B for the FCC in 1994-2014, implying roughly $80B abroad; $260B + $80B = $340B, plus allowances for other non-US sales and conversion to 2024 dollars, rounded to $450B. This is a transfer from firms to the public, not net new wealth. Share 0.03: Myerson's 1981 methods are a foundation of auction theory (Nobel 2007 background), but Vickrey, Milgrom, Wilson, McAfee and others built the formats actually used.","laureate":"roger-b-myerson","laureateName":"Roger B. Myerson"},{"id":"beutler-enbrel-sales","outcomeId":"monoclonal-antibody-drugs","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of antibody-based medicines, credited through Enbrel (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"direct","low":2000000000000,"high":2600000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1986,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.006,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Outcome range reused from the Milstein profile ($2.0T-$2.6T of antibody-based drug sales); such totals include Fc-fusion drugs like Enbrel (Walsh 2022). Enbrel world sales 1998-2025: North America = Immunex 1998-2001 ($0.76B in 2001; $1.5-2.0B total) + Amgen >$74B (2002-21) + up to $4.5B if 2021 ($4.47B) was uncounted + $13.4B (2022-25: $4.12B, $3.70B, $3.32B, $2.23B) = $89-94B. Elsewhere (Wyeth, then Pfizer): $1.1B (2005), $3.3B (2010), $1.4B (2020), $1.19B (2021), $1.00B (2022), $0.83B (2023). Interpolating, with 2011-15 assumed at $2.9-3.8B a year, pre-2005 at $1.0-1.7B and 2024-25 at $1.2-1.5B, gives $43-50B. Total $132-144B = 5.1-7.2% of the outcome. Share 0.006 credits Beutler with about a tenth of Enbrel (8-12%): his lab invented and patented the design, but Immunex used the other TNF receptor, developed and tested the drug, and licensed further patents (Roche).","laureate":"bruce-a-beutler","laureateName":"Bruce A. Beutler"},{"id":"sipuleucel-t-men-treated","outcomeId":"sipuleucel-t-prostate-cancer","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Men with advanced prostate cancer treated with sipuleucel-T (Provenge) cell immunotherapy","scope":"ripple","low":35000,"high":40000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2010,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"sourced","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Dendreon, the maker, says nearly 40,000 men have received sipuleucel-T since US approval in April 2010: high = 40,000; low = 35,000 allows for the vague 'nearly'. This counts men treated, not lives saved: in the pivotal IMPACT trial (512 men) median survival rose 4.1 months (25.8 vs 21.7) with a 22% lower risk of death, and a 2012 JNCI critique argued part of that gap may reflect harm to the placebo arm. Scope is ripple: the product was developed by others (Dendreon) building on dendritic-cell biology, not by Steinman. Share 0.1: reviewers place it within dendritic-cell-based immunotherapy, but the cells are a mix (about 46% T cells, 25% monocytes), the mechanism is unproven, and the antigen design, development and trials were others' work.","laureate":"ralph-m-steinman","laureateName":"Ralph M. Steinman"},{"id":"kidney-exchange-transplants-us","outcomeId":"kidney-paired-donation","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"US patients who received a kidney transplant through kidney exchange (paired donation), 2000-2025","scope":"direct","low":13000,"high":16000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2000,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"US only (UK, Canada, Netherlands, Spain, Australia, India, Korea excluded). SRTR's chart of paired living donors reads ~608, 574, 598, 655, 699, 946, 1,139, 848, 1,125, 1,132, 1,284, 1,493 for 2013-24 = ~11,100 (text checks: 19.1% of 5,798 in 2022; 20.6% of 6,226 in 2023; 23.4% of 6,419 in 2024); +/-3% reading error gives 10,800-11,400. 2025: NKR's 1,815 = 28% implies ~6,500 living-donor transplants x 21-24% = 1,350-1,600. 2000-12 (first US swap 2000; NEPKE 83 in 7 years): assumed 1,000-3,000. Total ~13,000-16,000. Share 0.1: Rapaport proposed exchange in 1986 and Korea began in 1991; Sönmez, Ünver and Ashlagi co-designed; Delmonico, Rees, Hil, UNOS and others built the programs; many swaps happen inside single hospitals. Overlaps Elion's organ-transplantation outcome for under 1% of it.","laureate":"alvin-e-roth","laureateName":"Alvin E. Roth"},{"id":"nyc-students-spared-administrative-placement","outcomeId":"nyc-high-school-match","domain":"education","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"New York City students matched to a high school through the main rounds instead of being placed by officials, 2004-2025","scope":"direct","low":360000,"high":550000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2004,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.15,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Abdulkadiroglu, Agarwal and Pathak: under the old system 26,098 of 70,358 applicants (37.1%) were placed in the administrative round; in the first year of the coordinated deferred-acceptance match, 7,143 of 66,921 (10.7%), and 5.4% in year two. Gain: 26-32 points. Low: 70,000 applicants x 26% = ~18,000 a year x 20 cohorts = 360,000. High: ~78,000 applicants (Roth cites almost 90,000 entering high school) x 32% = ~25,000 x 22 cohorts (entry 2004-2025) = 550,000. Assumes the gain persisted; we found no later-year data. Share 0.15: Roth designed the match with Abdulkadiroglu and Pathak; NYC officials such as Jeremy Lack and Neil Dorosin started and ran the reform; the core algorithm is Gale and Shapley's; the study credits most of the gain to coordinating offers.","laureate":"alvin-e-roth","laureateName":"Alvin E. Roth"},{"id":"kidney-exchange-deaths-averted-us","outcomeId":"kidney-paired-donation","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"US deaths averted by kidney-exchange transplants, 2000-2025","scope":"direct","low":450,"high":1140,"unit":"people","fromYear":2000,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Counterfactual: the patient waits on dialysis for a deceased-donor kidney. SRTR (s10): 28% of 2019-21 listings still waiting at 3 years; waitlist deaths 4.7 per 100 patient-years in 2024, 6.2 in 2021. Wolfe (NEJM 1999, s26): 6.3 on the list vs 3.8 after transplant; long-term risk 48-82% lower. Excess deaths avoided: low 4.7 x 48% = 2.3, high 6.3 x 56% = 3.5 per 100 patient-years. Time spared on the list: low 2 years, high 2.4 (the mean wait if 28% still wait at 3 years). Applied by year to the existing claim's 13,000-16,000 US recipients, capped at end-2025: 23,500-34,100 patient-years x 0.023-0.035 = 530-1,200; less 5-15% who could have had a desensitized transplant from their own donor: ~450-1,140. Later benefit after a counterfactual deceased-donor transplant is ignored. Share 0.1, as on his transplant-count claim.","laureate":"alvin-e-roth","laureateName":"Alvin E. Roth"},{"id":"lefkowitz-gpcr-drug-sales","outcomeId":"gpcr-drug-targets","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of drugs that act on G-protein-coupled receptors, 1990-2025 (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":4400000000000,"high":5200000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1990,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.01,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Hauser 2017: GPCR drugs ~27% of the drug market; 2011-15 sales ~$890B (~$178B/yr). IMS prescription sales (WHO 2004, Table 4.2): $127.7B in 1990, $282.5B in 2000. Low: 27% gives $34.5B (1990) and $76.3B (2000); 1990-2000 = 11 yrs x $55.4B avg = $0.61T; 2001-10 = 10 x avg($76.3B, $178B) = $1.27T; 2011-15 = $0.89T; 2016-25 flat at $160B = $1.60T; total $4.37T. High: 35% share (Sriram & Insel: ~35% of approved drugs) gives $44.7B and $98.9B; 1990-2000 = $0.79T; 2001-10 = 10 x avg($98.9B, $178B) = $1.38T; 2011-15 = $0.89T; 2016-25 = $178B growing 3%/yr = $2.10T; total $5.16T. Nominal dollars, probably an undercount; sales measure spending, not benefit. Share 0.01: most GPCR drug classes predate receptor isolation; Kobilka, G-protein discoverers and drug developers share the rest.","laureate":"robert-j-lefkowitz","laureateName":"Robert J. Lefkowitz"},{"id":"antibody-humanization-modeling-patients","outcomeId":"monoclonal-antibody-drugs","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People treated with monoclonal antibody medicines worldwide (share via antibody humanization modeling)","scope":"ripple","low":15000000,"high":60000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1986,"adoptionCurve":"exponential","attributionShare":0.003,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Whole outcome reused from the Milstein profile so totals line up: 15M-60M people treated with antibody medicines. Cross-check: Roche reports 2.7M rituximab patients by 2017; rituximab was $6.8B of a $115.2B market in 2018 (5.9%), implying about 46M, inside the range. Share 0.003 = 0.2 x 0.15 x 0.1. Drugs licensed under PDL's humanization patents were about 15% of 2018 sales (Herceptin, Avastin, Xolair: $16.8B of $115.2B = 14.6%), rounded up to 0.2 for Lucentis, Actemra, Tysabri, Perjeta, Kadcyla and others. Humanization gets about 0.15 of the credit for those drugs; hybridomas, target biology and development get the rest. Levitt's structural models get about 0.1 of PDL's humanization work, led by Cary Queen and built on Greg Winter's CDR grafting. Patients are assumed proportional to sales, a crude step. Result: about 45,000-180,000 people treated, not cured.","laureate":"michael-levitt","laureateName":"Michael Levitt"},{"id":"schekman-recombinant-medicine-sales","outcomeId":"recombinant-dna-biotech","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Cumulative global sales of genetically engineered non-antibody protein medicines (a proxy for economic activity)","scope":"ripple","low":1500000000000,"high":2000000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.005,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as the Berg, Kornberg and Nathans profiles: world sales of recombinant non-antibody protein medicines since 1982. 2013 antibody sales (~$75B) were about half of biopharma (Ecker 2015); 2021 originator proteins sold $271B, of which ~$217B antibodies, leaving ~$54B (Walsh 2022). Ramp arithmetic gives ~$1.5T low, ~$2.0T high. Sales, not net benefit. Share 0.005 (~$7.5-10B): half of the 40+ tons of insulin made yearly is secreted by yeast (Kjeldsen 2024), and his sec-mutant work traced how yeast export alpha-factor (Julius 1984), whose leader Thim's team used to secrete insulin (1986). But the engineering was done by others, and yeast (S. cerevisiae and Pichia) made only 9 of 159 recombinant products approved in 2018-2022 (Walsh 2022), though these include big sellers such as insulin and semaglutide. Rothman takes no share.","laureate":"randy-w-schekman","laureateName":"Randy W. Schekman"},{"id":"auto-enrolment-escalation-extra-savers","outcomeId":"behavioral-economics-policy","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Extra workers saving for retirement because of automatic-enrollment defaults (UK and US)","scope":"direct","low":17000000,"high":28000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2006,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.15,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Same outcome and range as Kahneman's profile; pension defaults only, UK and US. UK: DWP says eligible employees in workplace pensions rose 10.7M (2012) to 18.7M (2018), +8.0M (low); TPR counts 11.385M auto-enrolled by Dec 2025, less ~9% opt-outs = 10.4M (high). US: >100M Americans have DC accounts; use 80-100M for multiple accounts. Vanguard: 94% participation with auto-enrollment vs 64% without (+30 pts, cross-sectional). Assume 40-60% of covered workers are in auto-enroll plans (61% of Vanguard plans, 78% of large): 80-100M x 0.4-0.6 x 0.30 = 9.6-18M. Total ~17-28M. Share 0.15: Thaler proposed auto-enrollment (1994) and co-designed automatic escalation, which the Nobel committee ties to the 2006 Pension Protection Act; Madrian and Shea's evidence, Benartzi, Sunstein, Kahneman-Tversky (0.05 to Kahneman), Simon (0.01), lawmakers and employers share the rest. His UK link is weaker.","laureate":"richard-h-thaler","laureateName":"Richard H. Thaler"},{"id":"pneumococcal-amc-child-deaths-averted","outcomeId":"pneumococcal-vaccines-low-income-countries","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Child deaths averted by pneumococcal vaccines in Gavi-supported countries, 2010-2025","scope":"direct","low":1200000,"high":1600000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2010,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Gavi: over 570,000 deaths averted by end-2019 and about 1.2 million by end-2023 (~160,000 a year in 2020-23). Adding 2024-25 at 130,000-200,000 a year gives ~1.46-1.6 million; low keeps the published 1.2 million to allow for model uncertainty and COVID-era coverage losses. Share 0.03: Gavi's evaluation says the AMC sped up supply and uptake but had very little effect on R&D, and results cannot be credited to it alone (PneumoADIP, Gavi funding, WHO advice). We credit the AMC with ~15% of deaths averted and Kremer with ~20% of the AMC (co-proposed with Glennerster; donors, Gavi, the World Bank and manufacturers built it): 0.15 x 0.2 = 0.03.","laureate":"michael-kremer","laureateName":"Michael Kremer"},{"id":"school-deworming-children-reached","outcomeId":"school-based-mass-deworming","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Children given deworming treatment in government programs supported by Deworm the World, 2014-2025","scope":"direct","low":170000000,"high":370000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2014,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Evidence Action: over 2 billion treatments since 2014 (198 million in 2024); we take 2.0-2.2 billion through 2025. Converting to children: India's program treats ages 1-19 twice a year, Kenya's once. Over a 12-year window a 19-year age band spans 30 birth cohorts and 228 cohort-years, about 7.6 eligible years per cohort. With once- or twice-yearly rounds and incomplete coverage we assume 6-12 treatments per child: 2.0 billion / 12 = ~170 million; 2.2 billion / 6 = ~370 million. This counts children reached, not proven gains: Cochrane finds no clear average effect on height, haemoglobin or school performance, while a 20-year Kenyan follow-up co-written by Kremer found higher earnings. Share 0.05: WHO already recommended school deworming; governments deliver the drugs; firms donate them; Evidence Action runs support. Kremer's research and co-founding role get a small part.","laureate":"michael-kremer","laureateName":"Michael Kremer"},{"id":"hcv-transfusion-infections-prevented","outcomeId":"hepatitis-c-blood-screening","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Transfusion recipients spared hepatitis C by donor screening","scope":"direct","low":1500000,"high":6100000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1990,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"WHO counted 118.5M donations in 2018. Median HCV-reactive rates by income group (0.007%, 0.19%, 0.38%, 1.00%) weighted by donation shares (40%, 34%, 24%, 2%) give ~0.18%, or ~210k reactive units a year kept out of the supply. Assume 1990-2025 (36 yrs) averaged 50-100% of that and 0.4-0.8 recipient infections averted per reactive unit (some reactives are false positives; some units go to several patients): 36 x 105k-210k x 0.4-0.8 = 1.5-6.1M. Cross-check: Alter's lecture extrapolates ~2.4M US cases prevented in 1990-2010 alone. Share 0.10: his NIH studies defined the disease, built the validation panel and showed donor testing would stop ~90% of cases, but Chiron's team found the virus and made the test. Low confidence: the averaging and per-unit factors are assumptions.","laureate":"harvey-j-alter","laureateName":"Harvey J. Alter"},{"id":"hcv-cured-by-antivirals","outcomeId":"hepatitis-c-cures","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"People cured of hepatitis C by direct-acting antiviral pills","scope":"ripple","low":12500000,"high":15000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2015,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.03,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"WHO: 12.5M people received curative hepatitis C treatment in 2015-22. Polaris counted 0.64M treatment starts in 2020, a pandemic low; add 0.6-1.0M a year for 2023-25, giving 14.3-15.5M treated, consistent with WHO's 2026 finding that about 20% of people with HCV since 2015 were treated. Cure rates exceed 95% in studies; assume 90-97% in practice: about 12.5-15M cured. Ripple share 0.03: the drugs needed the virus identified (Houghton's team), proof it caused disease and lab systems to study it (Rice, Bartenschlager and others), and industry drug design. Alter says he had no role in the treatments; his part was defining the disease they treat.","laureate":"harvey-j-alter","laureateName":"Harvey J. Alter"},{"id":"alter-hepb-vaccine-deaths-averted-to-2025","outcomeId":"hepatitis-b-vaccine-screening","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Hepatitis B deaths averted by vaccination through 2025","scope":"ripple","low":350000,"high":3400000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Same outcome, range and share logic as the Blumberg profile, counting only deaths averted by end-2025. Li et al. (Lancet 2021, s24): vaccination averted 640,000 hepatitis B deaths (95% CrI 190,000-1.5M) in 98 low- and middle-income countries in 2000-2019 and 1.6M (460,000-2.9M) in 2020-2030. Low: 190k + 0.40 x 460k = 374k, rounded down to 350k. High: 1.5M + 0.55 x 2.9M = 3.1M, plus up to 10% for other countries and 1982-1999 = 3.4M. Share 0.02 (Blumberg 0.2; total 0.22): Alter co-discovered the Australia antigen as Blumberg's NIH fellow (s3, s25), but Blumberg tied it to hepatitis and devised the vaccine with Millman, and vaccine makers and delivery programmes were essential.","laureate":"harvey-j-alter","laureateName":"Harvey J. Alter"},{"id":"alter-hepb-vaccine-chronic-infections-prevented","outcomeId":"hepatitis-b-vaccine-screening","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Children spared lifelong hepatitis B infection by vaccination","scope":"ripple","low":110000000,"high":260000000,"unit":"people","fromYear":1982,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.02,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Lifetime benefit the deaths-to-2025 claim omits: chronic infection brings lifelong liver-cancer and cirrhosis risk. High: Nayagam et al. (s21) model that infant vaccination had prevented 210M new chronic infections by 2015; adding 2016-2025 births (1.365B, UN via OWID, s23) x 4 points = 55M gives ~265M, rounded down to 260M. Low, a simpler check: WHO (s22) says under-5 prevalence fell from ~5% before vaccination to just under 1% by 2019, 4 points. Cohorts born 1995-2014 (2.77B) at a gain rising linearly from 0 to 4 points (average 2) = 55M; 2015-2025 (1.51B) x 4 points = 60M; total 116M, rounded down to 110M. Counterfactual: no vaccine. Counts infections in vaccinated children, not transfusion infections averted by donor screening. Share 0.02 (Blumberg 0.2): Alter co-discovered the Australia antigen as Blumberg's fellow (s3, s25); Blumberg tied it to hepatitis and devised the vaccine.","laureate":"harvey-j-alter","laureateName":"Harvey J. Alter"},{"id":"alter-hepb-transfusion-infections-prevented","outcomeId":"hepatitis-b-blood-screening","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"Transfusion recipients spared hepatitis B by donor screening, 2008-2025","scope":"direct","low":1600000,"high":6200000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2008,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.05,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"2008-2025 only. WHO: 91.8M donations in 2008, 118.5M in 2018; linear between, flat after = 1.99B. Median HBsAg-reactive rates by income group 0.01/0.29/1.96/2.81%, weighted by 2018 donation shares 40/34/24/2% (WHO 2021) = 0.63%: 12.5M units kept out. Infections averted per unit: 0.15 (Allain, Ghana: recipients over 10, often already immune) to 0.5 (Gocke 1972, US: 52% of recipients of antigen-positive blood were infected). Low x 0.9: 11% of donations not screened to standard (WHO 2011). 12.5M x 0.9 x 0.15 = 1.7M, rounded down to 1.6M; 12.5M x 0.5 = 6.2M. Only susceptible recipients count, so no vaccinated child from the vaccine claim is counted. Rough: medians, unconfirmed reactives. Share 0.05 (Blumberg 0.2, Yalow 0.01): Alter co-discovered the antigen (s3, s25); his NIH studies measured what screening prevented.","laureate":"harvey-j-alter","laureateName":"Harvey J. Alter"},{"id":"spectrum-auction-revenue-design","outcomeId":"spectrum-auctions","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"Public revenue raised by government spectrum auctions using the formats he co-designed and their successors","scope":"direct","low":260000000000,"high":450000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":1994,"adoptionCurve":"linear","attributionShare":0.1,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low: net winning bids in the FCC's 100 completed spectrum auctions (1994-2022) sum to $259.1B nominal, rounded to $260B; some bids went unpaid after defaults, but converting early bids to 2024 dollars more than offsets that. High: the Nobel committee says the format raised over $200B worldwide vs over $120B at the FCC to 2014, so at least $80B abroad; $260B + $80B = $340B, plus later non-US sales and inflation, rounded to $450B. Revenue is a transfer used as a proxy; efficiency gains are unmeasured. Share 0.1: he co-invented the SMR with Wilson (McAfee had similar ideas), created its activity rule, co-created the clock auction and led the incentive auction design. Congress mandated auctions before any format existed, so much revenue would have come anyway.","laureate":"paul-r-milgrom","laureateName":"Paul R. Milgrom"},{"id":"crisis-2008-output-protected","outcomeId":"financial-crisis-response-2008","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"US output protected by the 2008-09 financial rescue (Fed lending and QE, FDIC guarantees, TARP, stress tests)","scope":"direct","low":7000000000000,"high":9100000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":2008,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.06,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Blinder & Zandi (2015, Moody's model) simulate 'No Financial Policy': no Fed lending or QE, FDIC debt guarantees, stress tests or TARP. Real GDP gaps vs actual (2009 $B): 19, 396, 778, 888, 920, 894, 769 in 2008-14, plus $312B in H1 2015: $4.98T. x1.416 (GDP deflator 88.56 in 2009, 125.43 in 2024) = $7.0T (low: the modeled window only). High: gap held at $592B for H2 2015, then fading linearly to zero by 2020 (+$1.48T): $6.46T x 1.416 = $9.1T. Effects abroad excluded; model estimates are contested. Their 'No Bank Bailout' run (no TARP capital or stress tests) gives ~61% of the gap, leaving ~39% to Fed lending, QE and FDIC guarantees. Share 0.06 = 0.15 of that Fed part: he chaired the Fed and says his Depression research shaped the response; decisions were collective, Geithner and Treasury were central, and ideas came from Bagehot, Friedman-Schwartz and Diamond-Dybvig.","laureate":"ben-bernanke","laureateName":"Ben Bernanke"},{"id":"crisis-2008-jobs-kept","outcomeId":"financial-crisis-response-2008","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"US jobs kept at the 2012 peak by the 2008-09 financial rescue","scope":"direct","low":4500000,"high":4900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2009,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.06,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Blinder & Zandi (2015, Moody's model, ss27), Table 9, 'No Financial Policy' (no Fed lending or QE, FDIC guarantees, stress tests or TARP; fiscal stimulus kept): payroll jobs lower by 2.1M (2009), 4.5M (2010), 4.8M (2011), 4.9M (2012), 4.7M (2013) and 4.0M (2014). Their 2010 forecast (ss15) gave 'almost 5 million'. High 4.9M, the 2012 peak. Low 4.5M, the 2010 gap, allowing for workers who hold two jobs. This counts extra people employed at one time, not everyone spared a spell of unemployment, so it is a floor on people helped. Same outcome and scenario as the output claim, different metric; model estimates are contested; effects abroad excluded. Share 0.06, as on his output claim: 0.15 of the ~39% of the effect Blinder-Zandi leave to Fed lending, QE and FDIC guarantees (2015, Tables 9-10).","laureate":"ben-bernanke","laureateName":"Ben Bernanke"},{"id":"crisis-2008-output-protected","outcomeId":"financial-crisis-response-2008","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"economic_value_usd","label":"US output protected by the 2008-09 financial rescue (Fed lending and QE, FDIC guarantees, TARP, stress tests)","scope":"ripple","low":7000000000000,"high":9100000000000,"unit":"usd-2024","fromYear":2008,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.008,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Blinder & Zandi (2015, Moody's model) simulate 'No Financial Policy': no Fed lending or QE, FDIC debt guarantees, stress tests or TARP. Real GDP gaps vs actual (2009 $B): 19, 396, 778, 888, 920, 894, 769 in 2008-14, plus $312B in H1 2015: $4.98T. x1.416 (GDP deflator 88.56 in 2009, 125.43 in 2024) = $7.0T (low: the modeled window only). High: gap held at $592B for H2 2015, then fading linearly to zero by 2020 (+$1.48T): $6.46T x 1.416 = $9.1T. Effects abroad excluded; model estimates are contested. Their 'No Bank Bailout' run (no TARP capital or stress tests) gives ~61% of the gap, leaving ~39% to Fed lending, QE and FDIC guarantees. Share 0.008 = 0.02 of that Fed-and-guarantee part: Diamond-Dybvig is the standard case for stopping runs with guarantees and last-resort lending, but Bagehot is far older, Dybvig shares it, and officials acted.","laureate":"douglas-diamond","laureateName":"Douglas Diamond"},{"id":"crisis-2008-jobs-kept","outcomeId":"financial-crisis-response-2008","domain":"economy","polarity":"benefit","metric":"people_benefited","label":"US jobs kept at the 2012 peak by the 2008-09 financial rescue","scope":"ripple","low":4500000,"high":4900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2009,"adoptionCurve":"step","attributionShare":0.008,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Blinder & Zandi (2015, Moody's model, ss16), Table 9, 'No Financial Policy' (no Fed lending or QE, FDIC guarantees, stress tests or TARP; fiscal stimulus kept): payroll jobs lower by 2.1M (2009), 4.5M (2010), 4.8M (2011), 4.9M (2012), 4.7M (2013) and 4.0M (2014). Their 2010 forecast (ss13) gave 'almost 5 million'. High 4.9M, the 2012 peak. Low 4.5M, the 2010 gap, allowing for workers who hold two jobs. This counts extra people employed at one time, not everyone spared a spell of unemployment, so it is a floor on people helped. Same outcome and scenario as the output claim, different metric; model estimates are contested; effects abroad excluded. Share 0.008, as on his output claim: 0.02 of the ~39% Fed-and-guarantee part; Bagehot is older, Dybvig shares the model and officials acted.","laureate":"douglas-diamond","laureateName":"Douglas Diamond"},{"id":"mrna-covid-vaccine-lives-saved","outcomeId":"mrna-vaccines","domain":"health","polarity":"benefit","metric":"lives_saved","label":"Deaths averted by mRNA COVID-19 vaccines","scope":"direct","low":870000,"high":8900000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.15,"method":"modeled","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"All COVID-19 vaccines: Ioannidis et al. (2025) estimate 2.5M deaths averted Dec 2020-Oct 2024 (sensitivity 1.4-4.0M; 1 per 5,400 doses, implying about 13.5B doses); Watson et al. (2022) estimate 14.4M (reported deaths) to 19.8M (excess deaths) in the first year alone. mRNA share of doses: Pfizer-BioNTech's 4.3B delivered by Mar 2023 plus Moderna's 0.81B in 2021 = about 5.1B of about 13.5B, about 38%. Low = 2.5M x 35% = 0.87M. High = 19.8M x 45% = 8.9M (upper share allows for Moderna's uncounted post-2021 doses and heavy mRNA use among older people). Share 0.15: the Nobel committee calls the base modification a turning point, but lipid nanoparticle delivery, the stabilized spike, the improved m1-pseudouridine base, industry and public funding were also essential; Karikó and Weissman together get 0.3, split equally.","laureate":"drew-weissman","laureateName":"Drew Weissman"},{"id":"mrna-vaccine-myocarditis","outcomeId":"mrna-vaccine-myocarditis","domain":"health","polarity":"harm","metric":"people_harmed","label":"Myocarditis cases linked to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines","scope":"direct","low":20000,"high":70000,"unit":"people","fromYear":2020,"adoptionCurve":"logistic","attributionShare":0.15,"method":"modeled","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Oster et al. (2022): 1,626 confirmed cases after 354.1M US mRNA doses = 0.46 per 100,000 doses (passive reporting, likely an undercount). Mevorach et al. (2021), Israeli active surveillance: 136 definite or probable cases among about 5.1M two-dose recipients (at least 10.2M doses) = about 1.3 per 100,000 doses. Applied to about 5.1B mRNA doses (Pfizer-BioNTech 4.3B by Mar 2023 + Moderna 0.81B in 2021): low 5.1B x 0.46/100k = 23,000, rounded down to 20,000 because later boosters carried lower risk and not every shipped dose was used; high 5.1B x 1.3/100k = 66,000, rounded up to 70,000 for doses given after these tallies. Most cases were mild (95% in Israel). Share 0.15, matching the benefit claim.","laureate":"drew-weissman","laureateName":"Drew Weissman"}]